UFC Ultimate Fight Night 25 Picks

The Ultimate Fight Nights and Ultimate Fighter finales can be some of the hardest to gamble on. These events tend to get prelim fights filled with people making their debut or making their last case not to be fired. While this one is no different, some of the picks below can most definitely boost your parlay and help your wallet.

Seth Baczynski vs Clay Harvison

  • My Pick: Seth Baczynski
  • Reasoning: So this is one where you have to ignore Rule #1, with both of them being TUF Alumni. However, Baczynski has had some interesting fights that, despite losing, have upped my confidence in him. During the Ultimate Fighter he took future winner Court McGee to the overtime round and got DQ’ed after taking it to Brad Tavares a bit. Then in a rematch with Tavares he MAY have been robbed of a decision. Although I said to look at TUF fights with a grain of salt, we have pretty much nothing else to go by in this case, unless you count Harvison’s split decision win over Justin Edwards (to take a page out of GSP’s book “I am not impressed by that performance”). Bonus things to think about: Baczynski has finished all of his victories and trains at a solid gym, Power MMA and Fitness.
  • Confidence: Good

Mike Lullo vs Robert Peralta

  • My Pick: Robert Peralta
  • Reasoning: Although I love watching Eddie Bravo and all of his disciples, 10 Planet fighter Lullo didn’t exactly impress me against Barboza. Now, I understand that Barboza is a tough guy, but I think Peralta poses all of the same problems. Peralta has got some big heavy hands and I like him to use those to keep his winning streak alive.
  • Confidence: Great

Cody McKenzie vs Vagner Rocha

  • My Pick: Vagner Rocha
  • Reasoning: I went back and forth a few times on this one, but every time I went back to Rocha I felt more and more confident. Now I will not deny that McKenzie has a great guillotine. It’s ridiculous. However, the first decent Jiu Jitsu practitioner he ran into finished him. Rocha is a black belt under Pablo Popovitch and I have a tough time believing he’ll fall victim to McKenzie’s only out. Once again, beware of falling into TUF guys.
  • Confidence: Great

Evan Dunham vs Shamar Bailey

  • My Pick: Evan Dunham
  • Reasoning: Honestly, I’m not sure what Joe Silva was thinking. This is a blatant mismatch. Dunham tapped out Efrain Escudero and, I believe, beat Sean Sherk. What has Bailey done? Out wrestled Ryan McGillivray?  Another typical TUF guy scenario. 
  • Confidence: Extreme

Matt Riddle vs Lance Benoist

  • My Pick: Matt Riddle
  • Reasoning: As you saw with McKenzie and Bailey, I’m usually good at staying away from the TUF alumni, as I said to do in Rule #1. But after looking at this from a few different angles, I still like Riddle. All of his fights are in the UFC, so experience is an advantage. Although Benoist has got an impressive stoppage record, it isn’t that long or filled with any big names. 
  • Confidence: Fair

Ken Stone vs Donny Walker

  • My Pick: Ken Stone
  • Reasoning: Both of these guys are coming off losses that weren’t pretty. One of my deciding factors in this one is the fact that Stone faced two really tough guys in Eddie Wineland and Scotty Jorgensen. Walker on the other hand dropped a decision to Jeff Hougland. I think the drop in competition will fair well for Stone. Bonus things to think about: Stone has finished all of his wins and also trains at one of the best MMA gyms, American Top Team.
  • Confidence: Good

Daniel Roberts vs TJ Waldburger

  • My Pick: Daniel Roberts
  • Reasoning: With these two both being impressive Jiu Jitsu practitioners, odds are this fight will either be a stalemate when it gets to the ground or it’ll be a stand up war. With Waldburger’s chin being like it is, it’s hard not to pick Roberts. 
  • Confidence: Great
Mike Stumpf vs TJ Waldburger
  • My Pick: Mike Stumpf
  • Reasoning: Well with Roberts out this took a little debate. But I like the camp that Stumpf is coming from, Team Curran, and I’m still skeptical about Waldburger’s chin. I’ll still go against Waldburger, but lets knock the confidence level down a little bit.
  • Confidence: Fair

Justin Edwards vs Jorge Lopez

  • My Pick: Jorge Lopez
  • Reasoning: It’s been three and a half years since Lopez has lost a fight and Lil’ Moster lost that one by a split decision. Edwards just dropped his first UFC fight to Harvison, who I’ve already picked against for this card. 
  • Confidence: Good
That’s that for this card. Enjoy the fights on Saturday and I’ll be right here on Sunday to breakdown how I did. Feel free to share your own opinions or let me know how you did.
Happy Pickings,
Big Sexy

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