Monthly Archives: October 2011

Big Sexy vs Walel Watson 2: UFC 137 Picks!!

After a mediocre event for me, not to mention a sub-par day for Mr. Watson in the picking department, he’s graciously decided to help us out again with some more picks. Only hours after his next UFC bout was announced, a UFC 140 contest with vetern Yves Jabouin, the picks go public. This time we look at UFC 137, the event with the ever changing main card. However, for the most part, the preliminary card has remained untouched. So, lets take a look at what I think as well as our friend, the Gazelle.

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Donald Cerrone vs Dennis Siver

  • My Pick: Donald Cerrone
  • Reasoning: Cerrone has always looked impressive. The guy has great stand-up and a great game off his back, especially with the triangle. Siver, while he is indeed a great kickboxer, has never looked like he is unbeatable to me.  A close decision win against Matt Wiman made me question, what would Cerrone do to Wiman. I would wager Matt would look a little less handsome. Cerrone’s tougher, plus expect him to use his reach properly and keep Siver at bay.
  • Confidence: Great
  • Guest Pickers Input: Cerrone has got great takedown defense and is just an awesome striker and submission artist. Cerrone no problem

Tyson Griffin vs Bart Palaszewski

  • My Pick: Bart Palaszewski
  • Reasoning: Bartimus has been waiting for a UFC fight for a long time. He’s been prepping and getting injured, prepping and getting injured. But, he has definitely made sure that he is 100% for this one. Try to remember, this is the same guy who beat Anthony Pettis two short years ago. Although he had some trouble with wrestler Kamal Shalorus, I think dropping down a weight class should help tremendously with that. Tyson also didn’t look amazing against Gamburyan, which is why I like the upset here. 
  • Confidence: Fair
  • Guest Pickers Input: I’m going with Griffin. But don’t count out Bart. He’s the comeback kid!
LOOKS LIKE THIS ONE JUST GOT PROMOTED?

Jeff Curran vs Scott Jorgensen

  • My Pick: Scott Jorgensen
  • Reasoning: Look, Young Guns is probably one of the best bantamweight fighters in the world. With the exception of one bogus judges decision, his only loss in the last four years has come at the hands on champion Dominick Cruz. Scotty is a little guy, but I’d love to see him get a second chance at that battle. I respect Curran and his whole camp (see Bart above), but I have trouble forgetting his 4-fight WEC losing streak and the fact that he hasn’t finished anyone since 2007.
  • Confidence: Great

Elliot Marshall vs Brandon Vera

  • My Pick: Brandon Vera
  • Reasoning: Vera is another one of those guys with a lot of time off. This guy looked like at one point that he had all the potential in the world. Anybody else forget the 69 second nap he gave Frank Mir. I won’t hold losses to Couture and Jones too hard over him, plus I think he’s hungry to keep his job. Although Marshall has got some good submissions, I think Vera is just way too ready for this fight.
  • Confidence: Good
  • Guest Pickers Input: I’m picking Vera too. He’s a dominant striker with submissions, whereas Marshall has just got submissions.

Danny Downes vs Ramsey Nijem

  • My Pick: Danny Downes
  • Reasoning: Once again, I enjoyed Stripper Ramsey as much as the next person in the TUF house, but what is rule #1. That’s right, don’t fall for TUF fighters. He’s got an impressive record in his MMA career (4-2) and got beat up pretty good by Ferguson in his debut. Downes got beat up pretty good against Jeremy Stephens, but he didn’t get knocked out, which is a testament with somebody with hands like Lil Heathen. 
  • Confidence: Good

Chris Camozzi vs Francis Carmont

  • My Pick: Chris Camozzi
  • Reasoning:  First off, I agree with the masses in saying this man should have never been fired. Two pretty good wins and one loss leads to a big ugly ax? Secondly, he’s got a lot of potential and not to mention some size. He looks huge on fight night. I say he’s way too much for the newcomer.
  • Confidence: Great
  • Guest Pickers Input: Camozzi looking to show where he belongs. I’m going with him.

Dustin Jacoby vs Clifford Starks

  • My Pick: Clifford Starks
  • Reasoning: So, this fight was announced as I was writing this. I had to go take my time and look at what I could find on each of these newcomers. Here’s what I have to pass out to you guys. Basically, Jacoby is a tall free-kicking knockout artist. Looks to throw kicks like they are going out of style, at least in the couple fights I saw. Starks, on the other hand, was a wrestler in college, Arizona State University, and now trains with some solid wrestlers, Bader, Simpson. Anything more dangerous to kickers than a solid wrestler? Didn’t think so.
  • Confidence: Fair
So there you have it. After writing the the prelim card had not been shaken up like the main card, it is literally changed while I type. Much like this card, I’ve recovered and this should be an exciting event regardless. Not the best card of all time, like it could have been, but still should be good. I want to thank Walel Watson one more time for popping in and wish him luck at UFC 140.
Happy Pickings,
Big Sexy
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UFC 136 Recap

Wow, what an event. Some absolutely amazing fights. Prelim Picker had it’s roughest day to date going 3-3 dropping the career mark to 21-9 (.700). Also, in a rare case, yesterday every single preliminary card fight went the distance. Odd, but in all honesty I believe it makes it harder to predict. Here’s a look at my wrong assumptions and my correct ones.

Wrong: Cantwell’s drop will be good for him

-As a matter of fact, he looked to have a smaller gas tank and, with the exception of the first, he looked as bad as his nose did at the end of the fight.

Right: Stipe Miocic is good

-He didn’t quite put Beltran away, but some of those shots would take down just about everybody except for Beltran and Cabbage Correira.

Wrong: Maia can’t get Santiago down

-Yeah, he can.

Right: Pettis’ technical striking will win him the fight

-Once again, he didn’t really impress, but he looked good on the feet.

 

Once again, Prelim Picker did take out our the “Guest Picker”. After defeating Johny Hendricks last week 3-1 to 1-3, I picked up the win again this week 2-2 to 1-3 against Bantamweight fighter Walel Watson. However, stay tuned for UFC 137 as Watson is coming back to try and redeem himself and trying to improve that mark.

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy


The Next Guest is the Gazelle Who’ll Make Some Guesses

Snappy alliterative titles aside, Prelim Picker is proud to boast it’s second “Guest Picker”. After having welterweight contender Johny Hendricks last Saturday, this week we’ll drop down a few weight classes. Walel Watson (9-2, 1-0 UFC) busted onto the UFC scene by battering and finishing Joseph Sandoval (a correct prediction by me) and has been kind enough to join us here to shed light on the upcoming UFC 136. Lets see what he had to say about the upcoming prelims.

Demian Maia vs Jorge Santiago

On the Spike card we have Demian Maia and Jorge Santiago, who do you got?

Walel Watson: I’m going to pick Santiago. If he sets the pace early Maia won’t be able to answer.

I like it. I’m feeling the same way.

Anthony Pettis vs Jeremy Stephens

WW: Pettis. Stephens carries a big punch, but Pettis is just too versatile.

 We are definitely on the same page.

Joey Beltran vs Stipe Miocic

WW: Beltran. He always comes to fight and sets a very high pace.

Well, we had to disagree eventually. I agree that he does set a good pace, I just think he might of found an opponent who can handle it.

Steve Cantwell vs Mike Massenzio

Lastly, we’ve got Cantwell and Massenzio. I personally like Cantwell dropping down a weight class.

WW: Yeah, Cantwell is very well rounded. He can hurt you standing and break your arm on the ground.

He definitely can be a dangerous man. Walel, thanks for the picks, as for your side of the fight game, who do you have in your sights for your next fight?

WW: Its really up in the air. I’ll fight who ever to take me to the top and fight the title holder. Whether its Dominick [Cruz] when I get there or someone else holding the title. So, whoever Mr. White and Mr. Shelby say fight, that’s who I’m going to fight!

Well there you have it, straight from the horse’s (or Gazelle’s) mouth. It should be an interesting night of fights right up through the main card. I’d like to thank Walel Watson for taking the time out of his life, which is most likely now filled with interviews and people trying to get their hands on this hot prospect. We hope to have you on again sometime and good luck with your upcoming training.

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy


UFC 136 Picks

I started off last week talking about how amazing it was that we were getting a free title fight. So, let me start off this week by saying how amazing it is that we are getting two title fights in one night. I know, I know, it’s happened before, but probably not one week after another title fight. Overall, we are living in a great age for MMA fans. Lets take a look at some of the other gifts we’re getting come Saturday.

Demian Maia vs Jorge Santiago

  • My Pick: Jorge Santiago
  • Reasoning: Okay, I know this seems like an odd pick to some, but hear me out. I know Maia has been working on his stand up, but honestly it is still not very good. So, then the question becomes “can Maia get Santiago down” and I really think that, although it might happen once or twice, the answer is no. I think Santiago working with the newly coined Blackzilian team, which seems to be rather heavy on wrestling help, will keep his feet, which is where his advantage lies. I imagine from there he’ll pick Maia apart and maybe land something heavy.
  • Confidence: Good

Anthony Pettis vs Jeremy Stephens

  • My Pick: Anthony Pettis
  • Reasoning: Showtime doesn’t just have an array of flashy kicks, although that is what people remember him for. He also has some good technical striking when he wants to, he’s got a great camp and he’s also slick off of his back, if he finds himself there. The only glaring weakness I see in him right now is his lack of wrestling. Seeing as Stephens isn’t about to try to grind him out like Clay Guida, I think Pettis is a safe pick here.
  • Confidence: Great

Joey Beltran vs Stipe Miocic

  • My Pick: Stipe Miocic
  • Reasoning: After UFC 135, all anybody (anybody who watched the preliminary fights, that is) could talk about was Walel “The Gazelle” Watson and for good reason. The guy dominated and showed a level of promise that’s going to make him a top prospect to keep an eye on. After UFC 136, I predict Stipe Miocic will be in that category as well. For those who don’t know him, he’s a large Croatian who knocks people out. He’s won the Golden Gloves boxing championship in addition to being pretty strong with his kicks. Follow that up with the fact that he was a division I wrestler and can dictate where the fight takes place and that spells trouble for a lot of people. Think Cro Cop, only he can make you stand and trade with him. 
  • Confidence: Great

Darren Elkins vs Tiequan Zhang

  • My Pick: Tiequan Zhang
  • Reasoning: Elkins, in all fairness, should be riding a two fight losing streak. Michihiro Omigawa, who I am not that high on to begin with, should have taken that decision from Elkins, no doubt. Tiequan on the other hand, looked stellar in his last outing. He hit a nice guillotine on a fighter who, in 23 previous fights, had only ever been submitted by Joe Lauzon. In addition to that, Tiequan also carries a win over the impressive, upcoming, featherweight, Pablo Garza.
  • Confidence: Good

Eric Schafer vs Aaron Simpson

  • My Pick: Aaron Simpson
  • Reasoning: This one is a real tough one. Simpson is a very good wrestler who’s only two loses came against Leben and Munoz (both headlining UFC 138). Schafer has had trouble in the past with wrestlers like Ryan Bader and Jason Brilz. So, easy pick right? Wrong. He just dropped down a wight class and looks stronger than ever. It’s not enough to get me to switch sides, but it is enough to worry me a bit.
  • Confidence: Fair

Steve Cantwell vs Mike Massenzio

  • My Pick: Steve Cantwell
  • Reasoning: Three straight losses never looks to good, but lets remember Cantwell for the man he was when he fought a trifecta of fights with Brian Stann. I think this drop down to middleweight will be good for him and really no part of Massenzio has ever impressed me. 
  • Confidence: Fair
Well, there you have it, the next round of picks. We’ll see if I can’t pick my record up a bit from my 75% correct level.
Happy Pickings,
Big Sexy

Second Big Tip

I come back here for my second of the lessons you need to learn when gambling on fights. First we examined the trouble we have with our love for TUF fighters, now its time to look at another thing to stay away from

Big Sexy’s Big Tip #2: No short camp fighters

I don’t care how recently they’ve fought. I don’t care what their record is recently. I don’t care about much other than the fact that they haven’t had enough time to prepare. Take Byron Bloodworth saturday. The guy might be good, but when you’ve only had five days to look at what your opponent has to offer, you are going to suffer. I know some of you might point back to the Charlie Brenneman/Rick Story fight, but you have to remember he had his whole camp and I’d say he probably followed the same plan (take him down… a lot). Now there are a few exceptions to this. Fighters who step in to fight guys that are clearly much below them in skill level, but it has to be much lower. Examples of this are Koscheck beating up Hughes and Leben when he beat Akiyama. However, as a rule, stay away from them.

 


UFC on Versus 6 Recap

As always, Prelim Picker likes to stay responsible for the picks posted. This weekend is no different, although there are not many to lament over. A 5-1 (.833) record for the event brings my total record up to 18-6 (.750). Not too shabby. However, I do have to note I dropped my first Great confidence match-up and lets look at what happened.

Shane Roller vs TJ Grant

-As I said, this was a Great confidence pick for me, mostly due to the fact that I thought Roller’s wrestling would take over. I must have underestimated how good the weight cut would be for Grant, as he looked very strong. I will say this though, even if Roller wasn’t winning on the cards, he did NOT tap.

And now on to what I said that was clearly right (there was a lot of it)

I question whether or not Joseph Sandoval can get his hands on Walel Watson.

-Walel, although I had his submissions being a major reason, kept the distance like I figured he would. He  threw his kicks in bunches and made Sandoval pay early. This kid is good and he’s only going to get better.

Paul Sass can get the fight where he wants better than Cody McKenzie

-I pointed out how the underdog has a lot better chance getting the fight to his spot than our other crazy submission artist and he delivered. Johnson look reluctant to go to the ground ever and Sass didn’t give him an option.

Rafaello Oliveira doesn’t have the power for Yves Edwards nor the grappling.

-Edwards showed he could bet him anywhere the fight went, which he also had choice over.

Also this event saw our first “Guest Picker”, Mr. Johny Hendricks who threw his opinion in on four fights. Although the night did not end well for him as he took a final record of 1-3 in those fights against Prelim Pickers 3-1. Don’t worry Johny you can still beat me up. We’d like to thank him again for joining us and we wish him luck in his next fight (Jon Fitch, UFC 141). Look soon for my UFC 136 picks!

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy