UFC 139 Picks: Prelim Picker’s Return to Glory?

After a tough last week, Prelim Picker looks to get back on the right foot. And really, this week couldn’t be much more different than last week. Last week: Free, This week: Pay-per-view. Last week: two young stars for a belt, This week: two veteran fighters for their rise back to the top. Last week: loads of hype, This week: people may not know their is an event. Last we… okay you get the picture. Let’s look at the picks.

Shamar Bailey vs Danny Castillo

  • My Pick: Danny Castillo
  • Reasoning:   Shamar Bailey is one of those TUF guys that I never though had the stuff to make the UFC. He turned in some of the most pathetic fights I’ve ever seen on the show and I didn’t think that could change. Although he did manage to last three rounds with Evan Dunham, his improvement wasn’t enough to sway me in this one. Anyways, Castillo owns the lone win against prospect Dustin Poirier and beat Joe Stevenson recently. Enough cred for him to get the nod here.
  • Confidence: Good

Matt Brown vs Seth Baczynski

  • My Pick: Matt Brown
  • Reasoning:   He did have a rough stretch recently, but Matt Brown has a lot of talent. His hands are heavy and I think he can only really drop this one if he gets submitted, but I don’t think Baczynski has the skills to submit the veteran.
  • Confidence: Fair

Miguel Angel Torres vs Nice Pace

  • My Pick: Miguel Angel Torres
  • Reasoning:   Let’s try to remember the fact that he was a former champion who was considered a top ten pound-for-pound fighter. He defended the bantamweight title 3 times and since losing it has only lost to Joseph Benavidez (title contender) and Demetrious Johnson (title contender). Pace just dropped a decision to Ivan Menjivar and has recently missed weight. 
  • Confidence: Great

Gleison Tibau vs Rafael dos Anjos

  • My Pick: Gleison Tibau
  • Reasoning:   dos Anjos shocked me with his win over George Sotiropoulos. Quite frankly, I thought that was one the Australian couldn’t lose. However, I thing dos Anjos’ clear weakness is his wrestling. He was beaten badly by Tyson Griffin and Clay Guida. I feel like Tibau will have the size and power to throw him around and take, at the very least, a decision.
  • Confidence: Good

Tom Lawlor vs Chris Weidman

  • My Pick: Chris Weidman
  • Reasoning:   This is my first instance of truly using Rule #3. All of my being wants to pick Tom Lawlor. He’s a great guy, loves to brawl and you can never really count him out of one. But man, has Weidman looked good in his short career! 
  • Confidence: Fair (can’t ever count Lawlor out, remember)

Michael McDonald vs Alex Soto

  • My Pick: Michael McDonald
  • Reasoning:   First off, remember my rule about no short camps. That’s exactly what Soto will be working with. Also, remember how good McDonald has looked. Although not always technical, he’s got experience on his side and can both take and dish out a beating. 
  • Confidence: Good

Ryan Bader vs Jason Brilz

  • My Pick: Ryan Bader
  • Reasoning:   People are talking about Bader getting the ax if he doesn’t win this one, I say he lost to the current UFC Light Heavyweight champ and possibly the greatest Light Heavyweight champ of all time. In addition, the guy manhandled little Nog, knocked out Jardine and looked pretty impressive in all of his other fights. Brilz, although he should have gotten the decision against little Nog, he showed how weak his chin could be against Matyushenko and Bader had got a big right.
  • Confidence: Good

 

So, we will soon see if this is the magic weak for me to bounce back. Enjoy the fights, they will be better than advertised.

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy

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