Monthly Archives: January 2012

UFC on Fox 2: Evans vs Davis Picks and Prelim Picker Hits a Milestone

It’s always nice to hit a milestone. A friendly little reminder that “you’ve done well”, even if the only one telling you is yourself and the four family members who read your blog.  Self deprecating humor aside, I really do want to thank the many of you that read my new picks every time. I’m constantly astonished by the growing number of you who care about what I have to say. So, after all that shameless self promotion, am I going to let you down with a mediocre statistic (ala the UFC with the vast majority of their big announcements)? Well, I’ll let you decide. While Charlie Brenneman was grinding Daniel Roberts into the mat, I was yelling at the television “50! 50!”. When the nail finally went in the coffin, Brenneman had earned Prelim Picker our 50th win and moving us further on our night, which finished on a 5-1 note I might add. So, thank you Charlie for the help, thank you to all of the people who have been guest pickers for us and thank you to all of the readers. Now, without further ado, the reason you come to this site…

Evan Dunham vs. Nik Lentz

  • My Pick: Evan Dunham
  • Reasoning: Both of these men put together some very impressive runs over the last couple of years. Dunham won his first 11 career fights (12 if you count being hosed in the Sherk decision), before eventually dropping a fight to the heavy hands of Melvin Guillard. Lentz hadn’t lost since March of 2007 until dropping a recent decision to Mark Bocek. I think this fight gets decided on whether or not Lentz can out wrestle Dunham. Given Dunham’s performance against the Muscle Shark, I don’t think Lentz is strong enough to keep Dunham pinned.
  • Confidence: Fair

Michael Johnson vs. Shane Roller

  • My Pick: Shane Roller
  • Reasoning: Roller has a division I wrestling pedigree, from one of the best college wrestling programs, Oklahoma State. In addition, he’s developed a fairly strong submission game and has recently shown some hidden power in his hands. Johnson’s only UFC win comes against Eddie Faaloloto, a man who I can’t quite figure out how he wound up in the UFC. Throw in the fact that he couldn’t stop the submission that he knew was coming in the last fight  (Sassangle), and I don’t see how he gets out of this one.
  • Confidence: Great

Jon Olav Einemo vs. Mike Russow

  • My Pick: Mike Russow
  • Reasoning: Do not get me wrong, as a submission grappler, I respect Einemo to the fullest extent. The Norwegian has shown that on the mat he can be one of the more deadly in his class. Insert punches and it’s a whole different story. Having only fought once in the last five years and fighting a guy who just recently stopped a wrestler will make this a second straight tough fight for the Golden Glory product.
  • Confidence: Great

George Roop vs. Cub Swanson

  • My Pick: George Roop
  • Reasoning: With the trash talk that these two are dishing out, if this does not wind up fight of the night, I will be severely disappointed. Not to mention, each of the fights I’ve seen from these two have been largely entertaining. What changes my outlook, and I can’t believe I am playing the referee card twice in one post, is the Hatsu Hioki fight. I honestly think Roop had it. He showed the ability to keep distance, much like he did to Josh Grispi, and he has shown some power. I think with the reach and height difference, Swanson is going to have a tough time getting his hands on him.
  • Confidence: Good

Charles Oliveira vs. Eric Wisely

  • My Pick: Charles Oliveira
  • Reasoning: A short while ago, people were talking about how long before it was okay to give Do Bronx a title shot. His grappling is great and, although his stand-up needs work, he compensates by using his reach and kicks to stay away. Although he has recently dropped a couple, the skill of opponents has been much higher, Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone. Wisely makes his octagon debut on not exactly short notice, but close, and this is really not the person he wants it to be against.
  • Confidence: Extreme

Joey Beltran vs. Lavar Johnson

  • My Pick: Lavar Johnson
  • Reasoning: If the aforementioned Roop and Swanson fight doesn’t take fight of the night, here is the reason why. To steal a line from Wesley “Cabbage” Correira, Beltran’s head is full of “rocks and stuff”. Mitrione, Barry and Miocic, all of which have very heavy hands, all failed to put him down. They did, however, all manage to put a beating on him he won’t soon forget. Johnson can bring that same beating without having to worry about falling victim to his own poor submission defense. I doubt Beltran will even go there.
  • Confidence: Good

Chris Camozzi vs. Dustin Jacoby

  • My Pick: Chris Camozzi
  • Reasoning: Camozzi has had a bumpy road. Breaking his jaw in his preliminary fight win on the Ultimate Fighter, being fired before he deserved to be and losing a back and forth fight in his last bout. Jacoby, admittedly has some strong hands, but showed a weakness in his wrestling. Whereas, that may not always be the first place Camozzi goes, he is much strong physically.
  • Confidence: Good

 

Once again, I will gush about the amount of fights the UFC has been giving us fans recently. Everyone can complain about FuelTV or other platforms that they have chose, but to be able to flip on my television and just get fights (without loads of cash) is always a beautiful thing. So, please enjoy this night of fights. I hope my breakdown leads you to increased enjoyment and/or wealth.

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy


Another Milestone… First UFC on FX Picks

Got to love the increased number of free fights the UFC is offering. Sure, before I could start up my computer and log into Facebook to watch those fights I wouldn’t normally get (the ones I specialize in). However, while I was sitting in my office, face inches away from the screen, my 40 inch television would be taunting me from down the hall. Fear no more my orthogonal friend, you will be the center of my attention tomorrow for this wonderful group of throw downs.

Jorge Rivera vs. Eric Schafer

  • My Pick: Eric Schafer
  • Reasoning: I really think that the drop down in weight was good for Schafer. He looked to have the power to deal with Simpson, a very game opponent in his first run out. The only thing that isn’t making it with the weight is the stamina. If he has done work on that, I see no reason he won’t be able to take Rivera down and beat on him a bit.
  • Confidence: Fair

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Kamal Shalorus

  • My Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov
  • Reasoning: I was a big fan of the Prince of Persia. I still am in many ways. However, after seeing his stand up exposed a bit, my thoughts of him have kind of reduced down to a strong wrestler with work needed on his stand up. Add in a long lay off and it doesn’t look good. So, with that recipe for disaster laid out, lets look at the other side of the cage. 16-0 Soviet who holds the rank of International Master of Sambo as well as Soviet hand-to-hand fight champion. The man can and will finish in any way and he will do so without a smile on his face…. he must break you (had to).
  • Confidence: Good

Charlie Brenneman vs. Daniel Roberts

  • My Pick: Charlie Brenneman
  • Reasoning: Derailing Rick Story off of one very impressive run has put the Spaniard very high up on my list. Daniel Roberts losing to a skidding and ioncreasingly unimpressive Rich Attonito has put him very low on my list. 
  • Confidence: Extreme

Fabricio Camoes vs. Tommy Hayden

  • My Pick: Fabricio Camoes
  • Reasoning: The impressive record of Hayden is easily outweighed by the fact he had three days notice for this fight. I’d be going against one of my biggest rules picking him. Also, fun fact to throw in there, Camoes has fought Anderson Silva, losing by retirement after a 25 minute first round.
  • Confidence: Great

Daniel Pineda vs. Pat Schilling

  • My Pick: Daniel Pineda
  • Reasoning: Schilling has looked sharp in all five of his appearances. My major worry: five appearances. Seems like he got brought up to the big leagues pretty quick and like I said, for good reasons. When you face somebody with fifteen career wins, all of which are stoppages, I just can’t favor you are very rarely going to get picked by me. In addition, Pineda has split a pair of with impressive Johnny Bedford. 
  • Confidence: Good

Nick Denis vs. Joseph Sandoval

  • My Pick: Nick Denis
  • Reasoning: While I have put a lot of stock in Prelim Picker friend Walel Watson, he knocked Sandoval around pretty easily. Although I think the Gazelle is going to be able to do that to quite a few, the speed at which he did it makes me question Sandoval’s chin. If there is a newcomer in the UFC that you don’t want to run into if you have a suspect chin, it is definitely the Ninja of Love. The man has 9 of his 10 career wins via KO including some pretty brutal ones.
  • Confidence: Great

Honestly, I think this is a great preliminary card to make some money on. A lot of easy mismatches that I think can be exploited, especially if you are using them with parlays.

Happy pickings,

Big Sexy


It’s Been A While Friends… UFC 142 Picks

So, it’s been awhile off. But it is a new year and it’s time for some picks. This is actually a big event for me, since the first Prelim Picks ever were from the UFC’s last trip to Rio. Let’s see if I can’t continue my unbeaten streak in Brazil.
Sam Stout vs. Thiago Tavares
  • My Pick: Sam Stout
  • Reasoning: If Tavares is smart, he’ll try to get this fight to the ground. I just don’t see him being able to keep the fight there and I don’t see him finishing Stout at all. Which makes us question what would happen on the feet. My feeling is if Shane Roller can knock Tavares out, Hands of Stone will probably lead to a similar fate.
  • Confidence: Great
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Ednaldo Oliveira
  • My Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga
  • Reasoning: Fact: Oliveira has some phenomenal hands. Fact: He’s longer than a lot of heavyweight. Fact: He has the ability to knock Gabe out. But I think Napao is coming in with a much different mentality than he has in past fights. After knocking out Cro Cop, he came out swinging with a lot of people. I think you are going to see him try to get this down and work for submissions. His top game is quite good, if we can go back to a time he was using it. Try to remember, this is a man who fought for a UFC title only a few years ago.
  • Confidence: Good
Yuri Alcantara vs. Michihiro Omigawa
  • My Pick: Yuri Alcantra
  • Reasoning: Never been an Omigawa fan. He doesn’t seem to have that finish power or technique. Marajo on the other hand has finished 23 of his 26 career fights and is riding a 12-fight win streak. Sure Omigawa is a big step up in competition, but I really feel that he can handle it. 
  • Confidence: Good
Ricardo Funch vs. Mike Pyle
  • My Pick: Mike Pyle
  • Reasoning: All of my being wants to pick The Golden Boy here. As a matter of fact, this will mark the first time that I am actively rooting against a pick I made, when I watch the prelims. Funch is the man who taught me the omoplata, a submission I like to use more than just about any. However, although I think he belongs in the UFC, I just think a seasoned veteran like Pyle, has too high of a level of grappling for Funch to get by. I really do hope I am wrong though.
  • Confidence: Great
Felipe Arantes vs. Antonio Carvalho
  • My Pick: Antonio Carvalho
  • Reasoning: I usually go for the young guy on his home turf, but I was very underwhelmed by Arantes in his first outing. Carvalho on the other hand, has some pretty impressive judo and some great jiu jitsu. I really think this will give him the best chance to fight the fight where he wants to.
  • Confidence: Fair

Well that’s all we have for this time. It is good to be back in the new year and I hope it goes as well as last year.

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy