Monthly Archives: February 2012

If There Was Ever a Time to Bet Prelims… It’s Now! UFC on FX 2

Coming off a set of predictions that I labeled with the title “I hate to brag, but…”, I once again must boast about my results. Losing only the violent knock out to start the night, PrelimPicker moved up past the 2-out-of-3 mark with its’ continued recent dominance. In the past five events, my record stands at a solid 22-5 including three cards containing 5 wins a piece. It’s a better time than ever to be a follower of this blog, especially if you are one of the readers who use it to make cash. After doing some brief research on these last five events that I picked, calculated with a modest $5 per fight bet, a completely trusting reader who played all of my picks (without even parlaying) would have an extra $77.43 in their pocket right now (which includes money lost from fights I selected the loser in). UFC 144 certainly helped a lot, with 3 of my picks at +165 or better (a shout out to those of you who claimed I play it safe) coming up Millhouse. Regardless, not a bad hunk of change. Let’s see how else I can add to your bankroll.

Shawn Jordan vs. Oli Thompson

  • My Pick: Shawn Jordan
  • Reasoning: Sure, I am impressed by Thompson’s strong submission skills and solid win streak. What I’m not impressed with is his history against decent opponents. Rob Broughton hasn’t exactly been ripping through UFC opponents, but when he met Thompson a few years ago he took care of his fairly easily. How does his opponent fair against name opponents? Ask Lavar Johnson, who recently finished the un-finishable Joey Beltran. Jordan, a Jackson MMA product dispatched of him by submission. 
  • Confidence: Good

Daniel Pineda vs. Mackens Semerzier

  • My Pick: Daniel Pineda
  • Reasoning: Da Menace had everybody in the MMA community labeling him a world beater after he took out highly regarded Wagnney Fabiano. Since then, we’ve seen little in the way of good performances out of Semerzier, with the exception of a win over less-than impressive Alex Caceres. His opponent, the former Legacy Fighting Championship featherweight champion, is a finishing machine. He’s stopped 16 out of 16 of his victories and doesn’t discriminate  in terms of means. 
  • Confidence: Fair

Jake Hecht vs. T.J. Waldburger

  • My Pick: T.J. Waldburger
  • Reasoning: Waldburger, I believe, will carry the strength advantage and will dictate where this fight takes place. Uneasy ground for Hecht, who is used to using his own wrestling pedigree to enjoy that advantage. In addition, Waldburger’s Jiu Jitsu is more sound and causes people fits, especially from top positions.
  • Confidence: Good

Andrew Craig vs. Kyle Noke

  • My Pick: Kyle Noke
  • Reasoning: Craig is a solid competitor. He holds six straight wins in his short MMA career. However, he is over-matched by the wealth of experience that Noke holds including wins over George Sotiropoulos, Brian Ebersole and Chris Camozzi. Did I mention he used to be the body guard for “The Crocodile Hunter” Steve Irwin? How does that factor into my decision? It doesn’t, but when else am I going to get to mention that?
  • Confidence: Great

Cole Miller vs. Steven Siler

  • My Pick: Cole Miller
  • Reasoning: Cole is going to be a real big featherweight, yet he has made the transition well enough that I don’t expect many cardio problems. Siler seems to have improved on the ground game holds he had early in his career and has turned them into a positive. Still, he dropped a submission loss to Cole Escovedo, which happens to be Escovedo’s only win in the last 2 years. If that defense isn’t air tight, you can count on 3-time submission of the night winner, Miller to snatch up a limb. 
  • Confidence: Good

Nick Penner vs. Anthony Perosh

  • My Pick: Anthony Perosh
  • Reasoning: Penner has an impressive array of kicks that he likes to show off. Most likely, his attempts to land a few of these will land him on his back, which is where the Hippo excels. Nicknamed due to his ability to make himself heavy and hold opponents down, Perosh will only need to get him down one, maybe two, times. The 5-time  Abu Dhabi Combat Club and Prelim Picker veteran has some of the best Jiu Jitsu in the light heavyweight division and Penner has definitely not faced a ground game as strong as his.
  • Confidence: Good

Aaron Rosa vs. James Te Huna

  • My Pick: James Te Huna
  • Reasoning: Rosa really impressed me with his new physique and improved all-around game. 205 is clearly a lot more beneficial for him as it has been in the past. Te Huna is really a different animal than any he has faced in this class though. With real heavy hands, the New Zealand native has won 3 out of every 4 of his victories by knocking his opponent out. This includes a respectable line-up of Ricardo Romero, Igor Pokrajac and the aforementioned Anthony Perosh.
  • Confidence: Good

I’ve always been a fan of playing the hot hand and with the way that my picks have been going lately, there isn’t really one hotter. In addition, there are a fair amount of these picks that I sure will be deemed underdogs and once again could make you some good cash.

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy


Hate to Brag, but…. Plus UFC 144 Picks

Oh, how I hate to brag, but when you hit a perfect set of prelims, how can you help it. Sure, it was only 3-0, but I have a fair amount of confidence that should Sean Loffler’s foot not have been injured, it would have been 4-0. (Stay tuned for an interview with him in the near future.) However, we will never know for sure. What I do know, is that the UFC on Fuel card was one of the least talked about in recent history. Loads of people complaining about not having the channel and complaining about the match-ups. I have one quick response to that (if you haven’t already caught my entry yet how many of you watched Spike TV before it started showing UFC fights. The popularity will come.

On to this upcoming card, it’s easily one of the most talked about pay-per-views in recent history. With a influx of WEC talent taking over, as well as some Pride throwbacks, this is sure to have fireworks. My personal hope for it, is we get to see a glimpse of prime time Rampage and that Kongo chooses to stand and bang with Hunt. Maybe not the most realistic hopes, but I’m allowed a wishlist.

Issei Tamura vs. Tiequan Zhang

  • My Pick: Tiequan Zhang
  • Reasoning: The lone, Zuffa-owned Chinese MMA fighter, Zhang, may be coming off a fresh loss, but he has looked impressive as of late. With recent fights including a pair of guillotine submissions, one over high-touted Pablo Garza and a 48-second victory in his UFC debut, the Mongolian Wolf is certainly no slouch in the grappling department. Stepping in on short notice, and giving up a huge experience advantage, there seems to be very few outs for Tamura.
  • Confidence: Great

Chris Cariaso vs. Takeya Mizugaki

  • My Pick: Chris Cariaso
  • Reasoning: Both of these fighters have less than impressive recent records, Cariaso dporting a 2-2 record and Mizugaki with a 3-3. With that being said, all of the losses have been to the cream of the crop in their divisions (Michael McDonald, Renan Barao, Brian Bowles, Urijah Faber and Scotty Jorgensen). When it all boils down, the most impressive fighter in those losses, as well as the wins, has been the Kamikaze. His absolute battle with Michael McDonald sticks out as a testament to his skills. Mizugaki’s most impressive mark on his resume recently is the knock out win over Cole Escovedo.
  • Confidence: Fair

Steve Cantwell vs. Riki Fukuda

  • My Pick: Riki Fukuda
  • Reasoning: The Robot’s transfer over to the UFC was less than pleasant when compared to his WEC nemesis Brian Stann. Despite signs of serious skill, he’s seemed to have a lot of trouble staying effective throughout the fight. Fukuda, on the other hand, is a budding prospect who has only been derailed recently by a car crash and one of the worst disasters of a decision I’ve ever seen.
  • Confidence: Good

Vaughan Lee vs. Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto

  • My Pick: Vaughan Lee
  • Reasoning: Kid was once one of the most feared in his division. However, recently, he seems to have lost that killer instinct that brought him his fame. His opponent hasn’t had the same problem. He seems to be looking for the big shot the whole match and it has worked well for him, much like it did early in Yamamoto’s career. Still not convinced? Try to remember that both of Kid’s UFC losses have come to those significantly smaller than him.
  • Confidence: Fair

Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka

  • My Pick: Takanori Gomi
  • Reasoning: Once again a short notice fight makes a world of difference here. Although he’ll be fighting in front of his hometown, Mitsuoka is behind in prep time, UFC experience and overall fight experience. His submission record is admittedly very impressive, the fact that Gomi qualified for Abu Dhabi this year negates that quickly. 
  • Confidence: Extreme

Enjoy the prelims, enjoy the main card, enjoy my picks.

Happy Pickings,
Big Sexy

UFC on Fuel: Sanchez vs Ellenberger Picks

Well, if you weren’t excited about this fight card in the first place, you should be now. The mixed martial arts world gathered around the tube last week to watch the first welterweight title fight in more than five years to not include Georges St. Pierre (the last one being Hughes vs Penn at UFC 63). However, most left unsatisfied as some viewers claimed they didn’t get the brawl they desired, some claimed the decision was wrong and others were just desperate for the rematch to happen. After some of the most confusing reports in UFC history and then a fairly clear cut one involving marijuana, the newly crowned interim champion was left without an opponent. Seeing as it doesn’t seem that the UFC is going to wait around for St. Pierre’s knee to heal up, Condit is in need of a legitimate contender to erase the memory of a less-than-unanimous unanimous decision. While Prelim Picker is personally pulling for friend of the site, Johnny Hendricks, fresh off his devastating knock out victory over Jon Fitch, it’s hard to deny the increased relevance of this card’s main event. Although it seems to be a huge long shot for Sanchez, another dominating victory for the Juggernaut and he could be ready for revenge against the man who spoiled his UFC debut.

While we wait to see if this debate even gets started, let’s take a look at the appetizer for tonight’s main course.
Jonathan Brookins vs. Vagner Rocha

  • My Pick: Jonathan Brookins
  • Reasoning: Brookins trained for a little over a month thinking he would face Rani Yahya. Knowing this, we can assume he was probably doing a great deal of takedown defense (after all, have you seen Yahya’s stand-up? Me neither). That being said, I think this fight stays standing. Now, I would never make a Donald Cerrone-Jonathan Brookins comparison, but Rocha’s stand up looked pretty bad that night. 
  • Confidence: Fair

Buddy Roberts vs. Sean Loeffler

  • My Pick: Sean Loeffler
  • Reasoning: Roberts without a doubt has the advantage when it comes to camp. It’s always hard to pick against a guy who trains out of Jackson’s because they undoubtedly will have their fighter as ready as can possibly be. However, I’m still not sure how ready Roberts will be to step into the ring with a twelve-year veteran of the sport. Plus, as local fight fans know, Loeffler absolutely knows how to finish fights, 24 of 25 (3 of which made it out of the first round). 
  • Confidence: Great

Anton Kuivanen vs. Justin Salas

  • My Pick: Justin Salas
  • Reasoning: 8 career submission victories makes the Finnish fighter look good on paper. However, a lot of these victories have come against fighters with some really sub-par ground games. What’s even more impressive than the submission laced past of  Kuivanen is Salas’ victory over impressive wrestler, and main eventer’s brother, Joe Ellenberger. If the smaller Ellenberger couldn’t control him, it seems like a long shot that Kuivanen could.
  • Confidence: Good

Tim Means vs. Bernardo Magalhaes

  • My Pick: Tim Means
  • Reasoning: Magalhaes has some pretty solid ground game as well. Means, however, has very technical striking that uses his jab to keep grapplers and brawlers alike at bay. The Dirty Bird’s knees also have a way of making an appearance when jiu jitsu specialists get antsy and they are really nothing to shake your head at.
  • Confidence: Good


Although the new found title implications have made the main event much more exciting, the percentage of finishes from many of these preliminary card fighters will make this portion of the night extremely exciting and satisfying. So be sure to switch on the lap top and check out the Facebook fights.

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy

Okay, Enough with the Milestones… How About Some Everyday Solid UFC 143 Picks?

After two straight weekends claiming major milestones, new kind of picks with UFC on FX and my 50th win, it’s nice to settle in and take a little bit of the pressure off. Not that I really need less pressure, after all my job is watching UFC preliminary cards and predicting the winners. Plus, last week I put up another solid mark of 5-2, only losing the Roop/Swanson throw down and the Roller/Johnson barn-burner. Which actually puts me a quick sunken in choke away from 6-1. But enough excuses, overall it was a good night, especially if you were banking on the Anderson Silva/Chael Sonnen rematch as much as I was. No matter what the reasoning, I think I speak for most mixed martial arts fans in saying that I’m more than just a little excited for that one. However, we’ll have to sit and wait a bit longer. What we won’t have to wait much longer for is this stellar, even if slightly modified, batch of preliminary bouts.

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier

  • My Pick: Dustin Poirier
  • Reasoning: The Diamond was looking at a fight, in Erik Koch, that could have very well put him right at the top of the list to face off with the champ. Now, it looks more like he’ll have to have an impressive look against a tough, but ultimately over matched, opponent in Holloway before most likely facing Koch anyways. Although Holloway does carry an undefeated record into his octagon debut, it will be only his 4th professional fight. Considering Poirier just put away a really tough opponent in Pablo Garza and the fact that Holloway is also taking the fight on short notice, this could just be the most confident I’ve ever been on a pick.
  • Confidence: Extreme

Jorge Lopez Henry Martinez vs. Matt Riddle

  • My Pick: Matt Riddle
  • Reasoning: I’m extremely impressed by the run Martinez is on. He’s not only compiled 10-straight wins, but has done so against some formidable opponents. However, it’d be directly against one of my rules to pick a guy who is making his debut in the UFC on a whole 5-days notice. 
  • Confidence: Great

Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa

  • My Pick: Edwin Figueroa
  • Reasoning: Figueroa instantly gained my respect for life after his war with Mayday McDonald. Maybe he didn’t win, but he showed he’s one of the toughest guys out there. He showed not only heart, but also the ability to drop some bombs, which we’ve also seen in his victories over Johnny Bedford and Jason Reinhardt. Bruce Leeroy has improved from his time on the Ultimate Fighter, I just don’t know how much. 
  • Confidence: Good

Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope

  • My Pick: Matt Brown
  • Reasoning: Speaking of improved since the Ultimate Fighter, Cope showed some clearly improved stand up in defeating Chuck O’Neill, yet showed that he still had a long way to go when Che Mills flattened him. Brown, meanwhile, has one foot out the door after losing 4 of his last 5 and none of them in really pretty fashion. But if Joe Silva still has enough confidence to give him another fight, I think he can still bring it. Have I ever picked a fighter as cold as him? Doubtful.
  • Confidence: Fair

Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson

  • My Pick: Stephen Thompson
  • Reasoning: Stittgen has had a lot of success on the ground in the past with 5 of his 7 career victories coming via submission. He’s going to have to find a different route when he faces the Machado product dubbed “Wonderboy”. And I’m not sure how many other routes there will be to take given Thompson’s amateur kickboxing past.
  • Confidence: Great
Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper
  • My Pick: Michael Kuiper
  • Reasoning: My surprise pick of this card, and most likely the one to come with the best odds to add to your parlay, comes with the knowledge of the Dutchman’s hands. What he’s throwing may not always be technical, but it comes hard. Throw in a judo black belt and I think Natal, who has been less than impressive in his three UFC bouts, will spend a lot of time on his back, one way or another. 
  • Confidence: Good

As I said, there are a couple in there you should be able to add on to any parlay and still feel safe and a couple that you could use to really up the odds. Any way that you are gambling this time around, Prelim Picker has something for you.

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy