UFC on Fox 3: Diaz vs Miller Picks

Sigh.

Well, the rally for Mark Hunt is over.

Sigh.

But I do have to say, that this could not have been handled better by the UFC. The brass got together and made some picks that may not have been the most popular, but are the right moves in the end. Giving the fight to a guy, with championship experience, coming off a very impressive win over a name opponent is the right move. The congrats doesn’t stop at their smart championship move though. I’d like to extend a well-done to the way stuff got shuffled around. A lot of times when a opponent is displaced they are too worried about upsetting other fighters and won’t switch more matches around. This leads to bad mismatches or fighters being stripped from the card. Instead, we got match-ups that we want to see. Cain and Bigfoot shows some real raw power. Not to mention, if you are not excited about the grappling pedigree and potential knock out power in the Gonzaga/Nelson showdown, you’re watching the wrong sport. So touche Dana. Touche Joe Silva. Well done.

Now, on to the prelims for this weekend, which Big Sexy will be in attendance for I might add…

 

Mike Massenzio vs. Karlos Vemola

  • My Pick: Karlos Vemola
  • Reasoning: This guy is really physically strong. What is scary about this is that this will be his first time at 185. Some might say if the cut is hard it’ll zap his strength, but I think he’ll be fine. Mike Massenzio just came off of the toughest match of his life in Rousimar Palhares, which I would never hold against anyone. However, with nothing more impressive than a weak win over Steve Cantwell, Massenzio’s resume doesn’t spark confidence.
  • Confidence: Good

Roland Delorme vs. Nick Denis

  • My Pick: Nick Denis
  • Reasoning: The elbows. The rock bottom that he dropped. Liver shots. The Ninja of Love finishes and when he does, it’s explosive. Delorme has an impressive jiu jitsu game, but he’s going to have to get close enough to Denis to take some punishment. Not sure he’ll be able to handle it. 
  • Confidence: Great

Dennis Bermudez vs. Pablo Garza

  • My Pick: Pablo Garza
  • Reasoning: A very exciting finisher, The Scarecrow, has overwhelmed many opponents with some crazy stuff. Most recently, in the UFC, he hit a flying triangle and a flying knee for wins. However, he does have a history of being high risk with his grappling. Sometimes he gets just a bit sloppy and leaves something out. Bermudez needs to come hard and not let a finish get away, because he may only get one chance. However, I’ve seen him let those chances get away.
  • Confidence: Fair

Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish

  • My Pick: Danny Castillo
  • Reasoning: I respects Cholish’s grappling. Anybody who overlooks the training of John Danaher is stupid, but his ground game tends to be a lot stronger from the top than the bottom. With the wrestling prowess of Castillo, I think Cholish will be on his back for a good portion of the night. Unless he sinks something from the open guard in there, it’s going to be a long night. 
  • Confidence: Great

Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker

  • My Pick: John Lineker
  • Reasoning: I try not to fall for Ultimate Fighter picks all too often. Sometimes I can’t help it. Here was one of the times when I was seriously considering the green haired warrior from the first lighter weight season, but my better senses won out. Lineker has too much experience, not to mention a 13-fight win streak, for Gaudinot to handle. He also presses forward, almost non-stop, which I think will be a problem. 
  • Confidence:  Good

John Hathaway vs. Pascal Krauss

  • My Pick: Pascal Krauss
  • Reasoning: The German works the legs really well. I mean really well. He trains at Rufussport with some really deadly guys and it clearly shows in his stand up. What makes this even scarier is that his submissions are pretty impressive from the top, although I’m not sure how much time he’ll spend there. Hathaway looked good taking Diego Sanchez down and beating him up, he hasn’t really shown that same impressive streak since, dropping a lop-sided decision to Mike Pyle and splitting with Kris McCray. 
  • Confidence: Fair

John Dodson vs. Tim Elliott

  • My Pick: John Dodson
  • Reasoning: One of my biggest rules is to never pick a fighter on short notice. Elliot has had a little under a month to prepare for this fight with a guy who has shown some crazy speed and power. Not to mention that was at bantamweight. Dodson, for the first time in the UFC will be fighting at a weight where he is most comfortable and the top of the newly minted flyweight division will be watching.
  • Confidence: Extreme

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson

  • My Pick: Tony Ferguson
  • Reasoning: Now that the carousel of opponents has stopped, we can take a look at how this fight might play out. Ferguson has shown ever improving stand up in his recent bouts. Even though I was impressed by Johnson’s ability to take the fight where he wanted to against Roller, I think if he doesn’t get the takedown immediately in this one, El Cucuy’s pace will wear him out. 
  • Confidence: Great
Certainly a great deal of possibilities for prelims to steal some “…of the night” bonuses (That is except for submission. It’s hard to doubt Rousimar when it comes to that). Regardless, sit back and enjoy these bunch.
Happy Pickings,
Big Sexy
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