Monthly Archives: July 2012

Guess who’s back….. UFC on Fox 4 Picks

Well, it is certainly good to be back with my next set of picks. The events that I missed proved to have some really solid preliminary cards (even if the main cards tended to be a bit rough). In addition to that, during my absence, we saw the rise of a new contender in the middleweight division. Chris Weidman showed just how special he is by demolishing Mark Munoz and taking him down at will. However, there seem to be a lot of people saying he doesn’t deserve a shot at Anderson Silva yet or that he isn’t ready. I personally, think that these people are simply desperate for a super fight featuring the pound-for-pound number one, because anybody who thinks Weidman isn’t a contender is crazy. Chael Sonnen layed a very solid blueprint for how you beat the Spider. You need strong wrestling, annoying ground and pound and good submission defense. I’m not sure if I’ve seen wrestling as good as his in that division, he stays busy at the top and we can assume working with Matt Serra at Serra-Longo he has a good submission game. I’m not saying he’ll beat Anderson, you can never account for Silva’s head movement and remarkable striking. What I am saying, is that it is insane to think  that Silva has voided the division of any possible challengers.

As for next Saturday’s upcoming card, I think you all will enjoy this one. If you are a fan of solid jiu jitsu and submission grappling, this preliminary card is especially for you.

Ulysses Gomez vs. John Moraga

  • My Pick: Ulysses Gomez
  • Reasoning: Ulysses Gomez comes into this fight with a lot of hype. People seem to be very excited that he finally got him chance in the octagon and for good reason. This man has some really serious jiu jitsu. It can be really technical at times and at other times he can throw his opponent for a loop with some unconventional stuff. Moraga, not to be underestimated has a lot of power in his right hand. Although he’s yet to knock anybody out in a professional fight, he’s stunned several which lead to some of his submissions. If he lands that, he may have a chance in this fight. However, his striking is not too technical and Gomez is a smart fighter. Likely, Gomez will circle away from the big right and capitalize on a ground opportunity.
  • Confidence: Good

Manny Gamburyan vs. Michihiro Omigawa

  • My Pick: Manny Gamburyan
  • Reasoning: If you’ve been an avid reader of my picks in the past, you are well aware that I am not an Omigawa fan. He had some really quality wins earlier in his career over people like Hatsu Hioki, Nam Phan and Marlon Sandro, but since he’s started his second stint in the UFC he’s looked hesitant and overall not sharp. Gamburyan is very similar in that I know there is some serious skill in there, but if he doesn’t show it in this fight he could be looking for a job. In the end, Gamburyan’s judo experience will negate Omigawa’s strength advantage and his hands are much better.  
  • Confidence: Fair

Phil De Fries vs. Oli Thompson

  • My Pick: Phil De Fries
  • Reasoning: Thompson’s game plan in the majority of his fights is to put his man up against the cage and suck his legs out for a takedown. He is a big strong guy who will be able to do that to a lot of opponents. However, even if on top, he needs to be aware of De Fries game. De Fries, despite being only a purple belt, has some great submission grappling, having won by submission in 7 of his 8 victories. In his recent fights, Thompson has not really showed any diversity in his game that could throw De Fries off.
  • Confidence: Good

Josh Grispi vs. Rani Yahya

  • My Pick: Josh Grispi
  • Reasoning: There are few pure grapplers as good as Yahya. A former gold medalist at ADCC, if the fight gets to the ground, he is a safe bet. However, in his recent fights, his stand up has looked so poor that his opponents don’t really have to focus on strikes and instead worry about keeping on the feet. Grispi is a much stronger guy than Yahya and if he too maintains this focus, he will undoubtedly get the best of Yahya standing.
  • Confidence: Good

Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado

  • My Pick: Phil Davis
  • Reasoning: Phil Davis was, by all accounts, one fight away from a title shot. He showed that he has a few holes in his grappling defense that prevented him from realizing that goal. However, that should not be a problem in facing an opponent like Prado. Prado has very much relied on his hands and has not faced anybody with the wrestling skill of Mr. Wonderful. The Brazilian will spend his night on his back, trying not to get subbed.
  • Confidence: Extreme

Cole Miller vs. Nam Phan

  • My Pick: Cole Miller
  • Reasoning: Miller has a tough bout in rising star Steven Siler last time out, but Miller has always been one for bouncing back with an impressive performance. He’s got a well-rounded game that involves some frustrating jabs with long arms that keep his opponent at bay. He also has won a handful of submission of the nights. Phan comes off of a fight where he got exposed a bit. His ground game was proven to be far behind where we thought it was and he had no answers for a tough Jimy Hettes. I think Miller’s length will frustrate Phan as well and he’ll catch Phan getting desperate. 
  • Confidence: Good

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy

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UFC 148: It’s Not Goodbye… Just Until Later

Well my picker fans, the PrelimPicker is going on a long overdo vacation. I’ll be gone for most of the month of July and it appears for the first time since starting this site, I will miss two events. Sad, I know. However, I decided I will leave you with one more batch of prelims before I go on one of the most anticipated cards of all time. Enjoy.

Yoislandy Izquierdo vs. Rafaello Oliveira

  • My Pick: Rafaello Oliveira
  • Reasoning: In matches I’ve seen with Izquierdo, it is very apparent that he has some solid boxing skills. Being raised in Cuba, this makes perfect sense. However, his grappling seems to be quite a bit behind where it needs to be. Tractor is a black belt in jiu jitsu and although I wouldn’t say it is a very high level black, he is still so far ahead of where Izquierdo is that I expect Oliveira to capitalize on the first slip up.
  • Confidence: Great

John Alessio vs. Shane Roller

  • My Pick: Shane Roller
  • Reasoning: Roller is very lucky to be receiving this fight after dropping three straight, a fighter is rarely granted a fourth chance. Knowing all of this, Shane is sure to be geared up for the fight. He also has a lot stylistically in common with Alessio. Both have wrestling, but don’t use it as much as they probably should. Both have plenty of power in their hands. I think this one plays out of the feet and Roller frustrates him enough to put him in a bad spot.
  • Confidence: Fair

Riki Fukuda vs. Constantinos Philippou

  • My Pick: Constantinos Philippou
  • Reasoning: Philippou has been on a nice run recently. He has strung together three straight showing a lot of promise with a very well-rounded skill set. Fukuda, on the other hand, just beat out a very sluggish Steve Cantwell and even within that match he had trouble dealing with the gassed fighter. I think if somebody with stamina like Philippou pushes the pace for three rounds it will give Fukuda fits.
  • Confidence: Great

Fabricio Camoes vs. Melvin Guillard

  • My Pick: Fabricio Camoes
  • Reasoning: So, here’s my big upset pick for this go round. I honestly think that Melvin Guillard has to learn to respect the fighters that he’s fighting. Although a lot of people have pointed to his obvious weakness in grappling, I think a large, less-obvious problem is his ego. Although this works for some fighters, it seems to be detrimental to Guillard. Camoes, being a low profile opponent, might have a lot of focus put in his jiu jitsu black belt, but he is certainly not a slouch on the feet either. He’s got the type of power in his hands that if Guillard goes in and tries to get cute, he might get popped too or at least stuck in a worse position. 
  • Confidence: Fair

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Gleison Tibau

  • My Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov
  • Reasoning: Really, what I think this fight comes down to is who winds up on top. Both of these guys have good grappling pedigrees with Tibau being a very strong-bodied wrestler and Nurmagomedov having some serious sambo and judo skills. However, the Russian in this case seems to have the edge slightly due to his technique. In addition, if their grappling winds up cancelling each other out, I like Khabib to win the fight on his feet as well.
  • Confidence: Good
Happy Pickings and see you for UFC on Fox 4: Shogun vs Vera,
Big Sexy