Guess who’s back….. UFC on Fox 4 Picks

Well, it is certainly good to be back with my next set of picks. The events that I missed proved to have some really solid preliminary cards (even if the main cards tended to be a bit rough). In addition to that, during my absence, we saw the rise of a new contender in the middleweight division. Chris Weidman showed just how special he is by demolishing Mark Munoz and taking him down at will. However, there seem to be a lot of people saying he doesn’t deserve a shot at Anderson Silva yet or that he isn’t ready. I personally, think that these people are simply desperate for a super fight featuring the pound-for-pound number one, because anybody who thinks Weidman isn’t a contender is crazy. Chael Sonnen layed a very solid blueprint for how you beat the Spider. You need strong wrestling, annoying ground and pound and good submission defense. I’m not sure if I’ve seen wrestling as good as his in that division, he stays busy at the top and we can assume working with Matt Serra at Serra-Longo he has a good submission game. I’m not saying he’ll beat Anderson, you can never account for Silva’s head movement and remarkable striking. What I am saying, is that it is insane to think  that Silva has voided the division of any possible challengers.

As for next Saturday’s upcoming card, I think you all will enjoy this one. If you are a fan of solid jiu jitsu and submission grappling, this preliminary card is especially for you.

Ulysses Gomez vs. John Moraga

  • My Pick: Ulysses Gomez
  • Reasoning: Ulysses Gomez comes into this fight with a lot of hype. People seem to be very excited that he finally got him chance in the octagon and for good reason. This man has some really serious jiu jitsu. It can be really technical at times and at other times he can throw his opponent for a loop with some unconventional stuff. Moraga, not to be underestimated has a lot of power in his right hand. Although he’s yet to knock anybody out in a professional fight, he’s stunned several which lead to some of his submissions. If he lands that, he may have a chance in this fight. However, his striking is not too technical and Gomez is a smart fighter. Likely, Gomez will circle away from the big right and capitalize on a ground opportunity.
  • Confidence: Good

Manny Gamburyan vs. Michihiro Omigawa

  • My Pick: Manny Gamburyan
  • Reasoning: If you’ve been an avid reader of my picks in the past, you are well aware that I am not an Omigawa fan. He had some really quality wins earlier in his career over people like Hatsu Hioki, Nam Phan and Marlon Sandro, but since he’s started his second stint in the UFC he’s looked hesitant and overall not sharp. Gamburyan is very similar in that I know there is some serious skill in there, but if he doesn’t show it in this fight he could be looking for a job. In the end, Gamburyan’s judo experience will negate Omigawa’s strength advantage and his hands are much better.  
  • Confidence: Fair

Phil De Fries vs. Oli Thompson

  • My Pick: Phil De Fries
  • Reasoning: Thompson’s game plan in the majority of his fights is to put his man up against the cage and suck his legs out for a takedown. He is a big strong guy who will be able to do that to a lot of opponents. However, even if on top, he needs to be aware of De Fries game. De Fries, despite being only a purple belt, has some great submission grappling, having won by submission in 7 of his 8 victories. In his recent fights, Thompson has not really showed any diversity in his game that could throw De Fries off.
  • Confidence: Good

Josh Grispi vs. Rani Yahya

  • My Pick: Josh Grispi
  • Reasoning: There are few pure grapplers as good as Yahya. A former gold medalist at ADCC, if the fight gets to the ground, he is a safe bet. However, in his recent fights, his stand up has looked so poor that his opponents don’t really have to focus on strikes and instead worry about keeping on the feet. Grispi is a much stronger guy than Yahya and if he too maintains this focus, he will undoubtedly get the best of Yahya standing.
  • Confidence: Good

Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado

  • My Pick: Phil Davis
  • Reasoning: Phil Davis was, by all accounts, one fight away from a title shot. He showed that he has a few holes in his grappling defense that prevented him from realizing that goal. However, that should not be a problem in facing an opponent like Prado. Prado has very much relied on his hands and has not faced anybody with the wrestling skill of Mr. Wonderful. The Brazilian will spend his night on his back, trying not to get subbed.
  • Confidence: Extreme

Cole Miller vs. Nam Phan

  • My Pick: Cole Miller
  • Reasoning: Miller has a tough bout in rising star Steven Siler last time out, but Miller has always been one for bouncing back with an impressive performance. He’s got a well-rounded game that involves some frustrating jabs with long arms that keep his opponent at bay. He also has won a handful of submission of the nights. Phan comes off of a fight where he got exposed a bit. His ground game was proven to be far behind where we thought it was and he had no answers for a tough Jimy Hettes. I think Miller’s length will frustrate Phan as well and he’ll catch Phan getting desperate. 
  • Confidence: Good

Happy Pickings,

Big Sexy

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