Monthly Archives: January 2013

UFC on Fox 6: Johnson vs. Dodson Picks

Once again, as a shameless plug for my other writing gig, I’m going to ask you to check out my second Prelim Breakout Star on MMA-Manifesto.com:

http://www.mma-manifesto.com/2013-articles/january/ufc-on-fox-johnson-vs-dodson-prelim-breakout-star-simeon-thoresen.html

Then, I’m going to remind you that I went a stellar 5-1-1 last week (only losing the controversial split and then of course the no contest).

And now I’m going to send you some new picks.

Rafael Natal vs. Sean Spencer

  • My Pick: Rafael Natal
  • Reasoning: I like Sean Spencer a lot. He’s got a nice style and mixes his game up well. I just think, on short notice, Natal will be too much for him.
  • Confidence: Good

Pascal Krauss vs. Mike Stumpf

  • My Pick: Pascal Krauss
  • Reasoning: Krauss is a very tough striker, having boxed for a good deal of time before he made the switch to MMA. In addition, to borrow a line from Joe Rogan, he has a very underrated ground game. Stumpf was completely outclassed by TJ Waldburger on the ground and although that doesn’t necessarily say much, I think leaves him with very few paths to victory.
  • Confidence: Great

Shawn Jordan vs. Mike Russow

  • My Pick: Shawn Jordan
  • Reasoning: My big upset pick last week was Aldemar Alcantra and he delivered for me. This week I’m going with Shawn Jordan. For a heavyweight he is extremely athletic (which can we seen by his victory flips). Russow, although he sports some impressive wins, has taken said wins by controlling his opponents and bullying them. I don’t think he’ll be able to do that to Jordan.
  • Confidence: Fair

David Mitchell vs. Simeon Thoresen

  • My Pick: Simeon Thoresen
  • Reasoning: See my mma-manifesto article for a full breakdown. To summarize, his long reach will keep Mitchell at bay, his grappling is superior and Mitchell doesn’t have the KO power to put him out.
  • Confidence: Great

Ryan Bader vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

  • My Pick: Ryan Bader
  • Reasoning: These two guys have a very similar style. They have big KO power in their hands and above average wrestling. It should make for a very interesting contest. I’ve been back and forth a few times with this pick, but I think it comes down to Bader having a better gas tank. I think he’ll wear Matyushenko out and then maybe even knock him out.
  • Confidence: Fair

Clay Guida vs. Hatsu Hioki

  • My Pick: Clay Guida
  • Reasoning: Thusfar in the UFC, we’ve seen two very different Hatsu Hioki’s. Whereas he looked dominant against Bart Palaszewski, he looked anything but in his loss to Ricardo Lamas and his controversial split against George Roop. The key difference in those fights: travel time. When Hioki has a long home camp and can train at home without messing up his internal clock, he’s looked good. I think the travel really wears on him. In addition, I think Guida is not an opponent that he can bully with his grappling .
  • Confidence: Good

T.J. Grant vs. Matt Wiman

  • My Pick: Matt Wiman
  • Reasoning: TJ Grant is a solid grappler, but that is exactly the kind of opponent that Wiman needs. Wiman has taken care of every grappler he’s faced in the last 4 years including submitting the very formidable Paul Sass. I will stress that Grant has looked great at 155, but I don’t think it’ll be enough.
  • Confidence: Fair

So, there you have it. The prelim card for the night. Don’t forget to check out the link on the top of the page.

Happy Pickings,

Daniel


Happy New Year: Belfort vs Bisping Picks

With this new year we in the MMA world are likely to see many changes. Already we’ve seen Strikeforce close its doors with a finish heavy final card. In addition to that, I have added a change to my life. Starting at the beginning of 2013, I have taken a position as a writer for mma-manifesto.com. Don’t worry, you’ll still be getting all of your regular PrelimPicker content. It will now just be accompanied by my featured articles. If you’d like to check them out, you can find them here.

MMA Fans’ New Year’s Resolutions: http://www.mma-manifesto.com/2013-articles/january/mma-fans-new-year-s-resolution-list.html

MMA Promoter Elementary: http://www.mma-manifesto.com/2013-articles/january/mma-promoter-elementary-school.html

Now on to the picks you’ve been waiting for.

Francisco Trinaldo vs. C.J. Keith

Wagner Prado vs. Ildemar Alcantra

  • My Pick: Ildemar Alcantra
  • Reasoning: Despite taking this fight on relative short notice, I feel Alcantra still has the advantage. He’s got a solid ground game and lots of experience, which happen to be two things that Prado lacks. Now, I don’t discount the fact that Prado could knock his block off, but I think Alcantra #1 is going to fight smart and put Prado in a place he does not want to be.
  • Confidence: Fair

Yuri Alcantra vs. Pedro Nobre

  • My Pick: Yuri Alcantra
  • Reasoning: I was very excited to see how Alcantra fared against George Roop. I thought it’d be a solid match-up. Nobre is a much different fighter than Roop. He’s much shorter and stronger, but he seems to be a bit under-sized for this fight (his natural fight weight usually being 125). Alcantra has taken on and beaten some really game smaller weight fighters like Lamas, Omigawa and the aforementioned Trinaldo. I see him adding this name to his list. 
  • Confidence: Great

Edson Barboza vs. Lucas Martins

  • My Pick: Edson Barboza
  • Reasoning: Barboza is an animal. Sure he got tagged and upset by Varner in May, but he is still a future title contender. Martins on short notice stands very little chance. 
  • Confidence: Extreme

Diego Nunes vs. Nik Lentz

  • My Pick: Nik Lentz
  • Reasoning: I was already a Lentz fan when he was at 155. He’s strong, has very good wrestling and uses it to not only take down opponents, but to beat them up pretty good as well. Although Nunes didn’t look terrible against Mike Brown, his history against solid wrestlers is short and not awfully impressive. Sure he’s come a long way from the guy LC Davis beat up, but I think the weak point might still be that wrestling.
  • Confidence: Fair

Ronny Markes vs. Andrew Craig

  • My Pick: Ronny Markes
  • Reasoning: This might be a match-up of two of the most underrated guys in the Middleweight division. Markes is as tough as nails and as strong as an ox. Craig, on the other hand, has shown some one touch KO power. I think the difference in this fight comes with Markes size and the fact that he’s faced some tougher opponents. 
  • Confidence: Good

Godofredo Castro vs. Milton Vieira

  • My Pick: Milton Vieira
  • Reasoning: This is a fight of some really solid jiu jitsu guys and I can’t see this fight ending up anywhere but the ground. Vieira being just a little stronger in the ground game could be the difference, but it’s hard to tell. 
  • Confidence: Fair

Happy Pickings,

Daniel (I know, another new change)