UFC on Fox 6: Johnson vs. Dodson Picks

Once again, as a shameless plug for my other writing gig, I’m going to ask you to check out my second Prelim Breakout Star on MMA-Manifesto.com:


Then, I’m going to remind you that I went a stellar 5-1-1 last week (only losing the controversial split and then of course the no contest).

And now I’m going to send you some new picks.

Rafael Natal vs. Sean Spencer

  • My Pick: Rafael Natal
  • Reasoning: I like Sean Spencer a lot. He’s got a nice style and mixes his game up well. I just think, on short notice, Natal will be too much for him.
  • Confidence: Good

Pascal Krauss vs. Mike Stumpf

  • My Pick: Pascal Krauss
  • Reasoning: Krauss is a very tough striker, having boxed for a good deal of time before he made the switch to MMA. In addition, to borrow a line from Joe Rogan, he has a very underrated ground game. Stumpf was completely outclassed by TJ Waldburger on the ground and although that doesn’t necessarily say much, I think leaves him with very few paths to victory.
  • Confidence: Great

Shawn Jordan vs. Mike Russow

  • My Pick: Shawn Jordan
  • Reasoning: My big upset pick last week was Aldemar Alcantra and he delivered for me. This week I’m going with Shawn Jordan. For a heavyweight he is extremely athletic (which can we seen by his victory flips). Russow, although he sports some impressive wins, has taken said wins by controlling his opponents and bullying them. I don’t think he’ll be able to do that to Jordan.
  • Confidence: Fair

David Mitchell vs. Simeon Thoresen

  • My Pick: Simeon Thoresen
  • Reasoning: See my mma-manifesto article for a full breakdown. To summarize, his long reach will keep Mitchell at bay, his grappling is superior and Mitchell doesn’t have the KO power to put him out.
  • Confidence: Great

Ryan Bader vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

  • My Pick: Ryan Bader
  • Reasoning: These two guys have a very similar style. They have big KO power in their hands and above average wrestling. It should make for a very interesting contest. I’ve been back and forth a few times with this pick, but I think it comes down to Bader having a better gas tank. I think he’ll wear Matyushenko out and then maybe even knock him out.
  • Confidence: Fair

Clay Guida vs. Hatsu Hioki

  • My Pick: Clay Guida
  • Reasoning: Thusfar in the UFC, we’ve seen two very different Hatsu Hioki’s. Whereas he looked dominant against Bart Palaszewski, he looked anything but in his loss to Ricardo Lamas and his controversial split against George Roop. The key difference in those fights: travel time. When Hioki has a long home camp and can train at home without messing up his internal clock, he’s looked good. I think the travel really wears on him. In addition, I think Guida is not an opponent that he can bully with his grappling .
  • Confidence: Good

T.J. Grant vs. Matt Wiman

  • My Pick: Matt Wiman
  • Reasoning: TJ Grant is a solid grappler, but that is exactly the kind of opponent that Wiman needs. Wiman has taken care of every grappler he’s faced in the last 4 years including submitting the very formidable Paul Sass. I will stress that Grant has looked great at 155, but I don’t think it’ll be enough.
  • Confidence: Fair

So, there you have it. The prelim card for the night. Don’t forget to check out the link on the top of the page.

Happy Pickings,



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