UFC 157 Picks

Before gracing your presence with my preliminary card knowledge, I’d like to take a second to make a quick statement about the historic main event to this weekend’s pay-per-view card. Many analysts have said that a Rousey loss this weekend could spell disaster, maybe even destruction, for the women’s division.  While I do believe that the loss of the division’s figure head could be damaging, I do not think it’ll be as bad as everyone thinks. While the UFC will likely lose the fringe fan if Rousey is no longer main eventing, those fans are not likely to last very long anyways. Sure, some will convert to being die hards  but the majority will talk about the fight and then not buy the pay-per-view. As for those who are already die hards (if you’re reading this I assume you are), they will watch a UFC event no matter who is main eventing.

Shameless Plug: http://www.mma-manifesto.com/2013-articles/february/ufc-157-prelim-breakout-star.html

And now, on to the picks.

Nah-Shon Burell vs. Yuri Villefort

  • My Pick: Yuri Villefort
  • Reasoning: While I like Burell’s size and strength, his striking seems to be a little long and loopy. The Spang fight really exposed his striking and showed that if he’s going to be successful, he needs to tighten it up. While Villefort is no striking God either, I am a fan of his ground game. His way of keeping opponents busy of the ground is going to make trouble for Burell.
  • Confidence: Fair

Jon Manley vs. Neil Magny

  • My Pick: Jon  Manley
  • Reasoning: First off, it is terribly hard to pick against someone who taught you your first kimura. While I no longer train at his gym, I will always have the soft spot for that fact. As for actually reasons to pick him, Jon Manley is a hard nosed, press forward, don’t-care-if-you-hit-me type of guy. Magny is likely going to try to use his long limbs to keep Manley away. I expect Manley’s resilience to allow him to get inside to strike and/or work some take downs. 
  • Confidence: Good

Kenny Robertson vs. Brock Jardine

  • My Pick: Brock Jardine
  • Reasoning: Both of these guys have been thrown to the lions in their UFC careers. Both having faced some serious wrestling skill, each will be relieved to fight the other. However, although he failed to mount much of an offense against Rick Story, historically Jardine has looked much crisper and more technical, while Robertson fights much more risky and unorthodox. Although sometimes his spinning back fists and knee bar dives do work, they are not the most reliable path to victory. 
  • Confidence: Fair

Sam Stout vs. Carlos Fodor

  • My Pick: Sam Stout
  • Reasoning: I am and always will be a believer in Sam Stouts hands. I fully expect Fodor to try to get this to the ground and maybe even succeed for a round. However, like in the Healy fight, he doesn’t seem to have the stamina to continue this game plan if stopped a few times. If he bails on this, Stout will win the stand up battle. 
  • Confidence: Good

Dennis Bermudez vs. Matt Grice

Michael Chiesa vs. Anton Kuivanen

  • My Pick: Michael Chiesa
  • Reasoning: Chiesa may have won the least watched season of the Ultimate Fighter, which has caused him to fly under the radar. It’s obvious in his past fights that he has good jiu jitsu, but his boxing is underrated. Fans forget that on the show, he finished James Vick with his hands and Justin Lawrence with ground and pound. Kuivanen has good jiu jistu, but as long as Chiesa keeps it on the feet, Kuivanen will have trouble. 
  • Confidence: Good

Brendan Schaub vs. Lavar Johnson

  • My Pick: Lavar Johnson
  • Reasoning: One thing that has become apparent to me in Schaub’s recent fights is that his chin is weak. While his boxing seems good, one shot left open seems to be enough to put him away. Lavar Johnson hits like a truck. You know when the over zealous striker, Stefan Struve, won’t stand and bang with someone, that someone throws hard. I can’t imagine Schaub taking too many of those. 
  • Confidence: Great

Happy Pickings,

Daniel

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