UFC 160 Picks

Estevan Payan vs. Jeremy Stephens

• My Pick: Jeremy Stephens
• Reasoning: I’ve actually really grown to be a fan of El Terrible’s hands. He’s looked really good which is why he’s here with a UFC contract. I just think they dropped  him in a little too deep of water for his debut. Stephens hits like a truck and Payan is going to be willing to trade with him.
• Confidence: Good

Brain Bowles vs. George Roop

• My Pick: Brian Bowles
• Reasoning: Roop might be the hardest fighter to get a read on. He can beat up Hatsu Hioki and knock out the un-knock-out-able Korean Zombie, but looks very pedestrian at other times. Deep down I’m hoping that we see the old Bowles in this fight who I think is too much for Roop to handle. Be careful betting this one though, if Bowles has rust, Roop could take him.  
• Confidence: Fair

Nah-Shon  Burrell vs. Stephen Thompson

• My Pick: Stephen Thompson
• Reasoning: We all remember Thompson’s hype train being derailed against Matt Brown, but I don’t quite think it’s time to hop off. His striking is capable of making him a threat in the division if he develops a more complete game. I don’t think Burrell can stay away from those hands or ridiculously quick legs forever.
• Confidence: Great

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Abel Trujillo

• My Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov
• Reasoning: Trujillo looked like a world beater in his first fight under the Zuffa banner. However, once again, I think the UFC gave a new guy a little bit more than he can chew. Nurmagomedov is the 9th ranked lightweight in mma-manifesto.com ‘s Lightweight rankings and is a real threat for the title right now. An impressive showing here and expect to see him against a Top 5 guy.
• Confidence: Good

Colton Smith vs. Robert Whittaker

• My Pick: Colton Smith
• Reasoning: I will be the first to admit I’m not a Colton Smith fan. The move he made faking a glove touch will forever cement him in a bad image in my eyes. However, I just don’t think I can pick against his wrestling here. It’s too good and I expect him to take a fairly easy decision win here.
• Confidence: Great

Dennis Bermudez vs. Max Holloway

• My Pick: Max Holloway
• Reasoning: I am going with the upset here for a few reasons. Firstly, I think Holloway is a really smart fighter. Despite being only 21, he knows where he should be in a fight and works diligently to make sure it happens. And two, I think Bermudez needs to drag him down in order to beat him and I’ve been impressed with Holloway’s ability to get back up.
• Confidence: Fair

Mike Pyle vs. Rick Story

• My Pick: Rick Story
• Reasoning: Such a toss up here. Both of these guys are impressive veterans. The difference maker I think it Story’s relentless forward mentality. I think it helps him take an extra round on the judges cards.
• Confidence: Fair

Happy Pickings,

Daniel

UFC on FX 8: 9 Fight Prelim Card!!!

With a 9 fight card, who’s got time for a blurb. Here come the picks.

Lucas Martins vs. Jeremy Larsen

• My Pick: Lucas Martins
• Reasoning: Jeremy Larsen got knocked out at the hands of submission specialist, Joe Proctor recently. If he had trouble handling Proctor’s hands, Martins will give him a headache he won’t soon forget. 
• Confidence: Great

Jussier Formiga vs. Chris Cariaso

• My Pick: Jussier Formiga
• Reasoning: Most underrated fight of the night. Former #1 in his weight class, Formiga has a solid wrestling base. Cariaso has the ability to make things a war and come out on top (just ask Michael McDonald). In the end, I think this winds up fight of the night, but in the hands of the judges the wrestler usually gets the nod.
  
• Confidence: Fair

John Lineker vs. Azamat Gashimov

• My Pick: Azamat Gashimov
• Reasoning: I’m a buyer on Russian MMA right now. People like Nurmagomedov and Khabilov are opening a lot of people’s eyes to mother Russia and showing that Sambo is still relevant. Lineker delivers a lot of hard blows, but I see Gashimov getting him to the ground and Lineker has been known to get caught or fall into trouble on the floor.
  
• Confidence: Fair

Fabio Maldonado vs. Roger Hollett

• My Pick: Fabio Maldonado
• Reasoning: Rivaling Roy Nelson’s chin, Maldonado can take a punch with the best of them. Add in a pro boxing background and as long as Hollett can’t take him down, he’ll turn him into a punching bag.
  
• Confidence: Great

Yuri Alcantara vs. Iliarde Santos

• My Pick: Yuri Alcantara
• Reasoning: I’ve become a big fan of both Alcantara brothers. They seem to have all of the intangibles when it comes to fighting; finishing mentality, heart and a great fight IQ. He might be fairly evenly matched here, but he’ll find a way to win.
• Confidence: Good
  

Paulo Thiago vs. Michel Prazeres

• My Pick: Paulo Thiago
• Reasoning: Late replacement. Outmatched. End of story.
  
• Confidence: Extreme 

Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Cholish

• My Pick: Gleison Tibau
• Reasoning: Every time he fights I make mention of Tibau’s size and for good reason. He uses that pure size to bully people and take fights that he might be out matched in as far as technique goes. Cholish had a rough time out last time against someone with superior grappling. I think he may be in for the same type of night.
  
• Confidence: Good

Francisco Trinaldo vs. Mike Rio

• My Pick: Francisco Trinaldo
• Reasoning: The first Prelim Breakout Star on mma-manifesto.com was Trinaldo and I’m sticking to my original horse. He’s got a great mixture of power in his fists and technical jiu jitsu. Although Rio is a good step up in opponents, he did get submitted by Andy Ogle. If Ogle gave him trouble, Trinaldo should make him hurt on the ground.
  
• Confidence: Great

Hacran Dias vs. Nik Lentz

• My Pick: Nik Lentz
• Reasoning: The winner of this match should be right in the mix in the 145 division. Both of these guys have looked great as of late. Since dropping to 145 Lentz has looked unbeatable. Although I think Dias’ ground game should give him more fits than his past opponents, Lentz will be able to overcome it.
  
• Confidence: Fair

UFC 159 Picks

Before we get to the picks, I just want to let you know I have some exciting news about an interview coming up. If your a fan of my writing, keep an eye on the mma-manifesto in the coming months. It should be very exciting.

Kurt Holobaugh vs. Steven Siler

• My Pick: Steven Siler
• Reasoning: A loss to Darren Elkins does not change how I feel about this kid’s skills. When you see him step into the octagon and beat up Cole Miller like that, you have to respect him. Not to mention, in his last 19 fights he’s only loss 3 and they were to Cole Escovedo, Elkins and Chad Mendes. Needless to say, his recent trend it up.
  
• Confidence: Good

Nick Catone vs. James Head

• My Pick: Nick Catone
• Reasoning: The Jersey Devil is one we forget due to his recent losses to TJ Waldburger and Chris Camozzi. However, this is a guy who swept Costa Philippou across the scorecards, which is his only loss if you don’t count his debut. In addition, his Pablo Popovich brown belt could come into play in this match up. Head it tough, just nto as tough as Catone.
  
• Confidence: Good

Leonard Garcia vs. Cody McKenzie

• My Pick: Leonard Garcia
• Reasoning: Does Garcia have the tendency to fight stupid? Yes. Could he possibly drop his head enough to get submitted? Yes. I think it’s far more likely that he’ll connect on a punch to the weak jawed and low handed McKenzie first though.
  
• Confidence: Fair

Rustam Khabilov vs. Yancy Medeiros

• My Pick: Rustam Khabilov
• Reasoning: I think Medeiros has some solid hands and has shown some decent grappling. However, I’m buying the current influx of Sambo in the MMA world. It seems to have found it’s place and is making an impact on the UFC. I think Khabilov will have the answer grappling wise and finish this.
  
• Confidence: Good

Sheila Gaff vs. Sara McMann

• My Pick: Sara McMann
• Reasoning: While I love Gaff’s forward approach, I think she’s going to have to modify it here. Sure, those power shots have worked in the past, but McMann is much smarter and wrestle a great deal better than Gaff’s former opponents. If Gaff continues with her usual game plan, she’s going to wind up on her back.
  
• Confidence: Great

Ovince St. Preux vs. Gian Villante

• My Pick: Ovince St. Preux
• Reasoning: When you are the type of guy who can turtle up Gegard Mousasi and knock someone like TJ Cook (who has a highly underrated chin) out, you have my attention. I think OSP’s striking is just a bit ahead of Villante’s. Plus, Villante is not impressive at all on the ground.
  
• Confidence: Good

Johnny Bedford vs. Bryan Caraway

• My Pick: Johnny Bedford
• Reasoning: Caraway’s number one avenue for victory is the submission. No question there as 14 of his 17 wins have come that way. With Bedford being a D-1 wrestler and with some solid jiu jitsu defense, I think the chances for that are low. And if he stops it from going down and Caraway is forced to trade, it’s Bedford’s world.
  
• Confidence: Good

Happy Pickings,

Daniel

UFC on Fox 7 Picks

Yoel Romero vs. Clifford Starks

• My Pick: Yoel Romero
• Reasoning: Starks has largely relied on bullying his opponents with his large frame. He is extremely strong for his weight class and was even able to toss Ed Herman around a bit. But he’s finally run into an opponent who won’t allow it. Romero is a silver medal wrestler with some pretty heavy hands. He won’t be pushed around.
  
• Confidence: Good
  

Anthony Njokuani vs. Roger Bowling

• My Pick: Anthony Njokuani
• Reasoning: I really like Bowling’s stand up, but he has trouble with strikers who are a bit more technical. Terec Saffiedine and Voelker both gave him a fair deal of trouble. With Njokuani having some solid muay thai, I think he’s point him to death from range.
  
• Confidence: Fair

TJ Dillashaw vs. Hugo Viana

• My Pick: TJ Dillashaw
• Reasoning: Still not sure why Dillashaw isn’t getting bigger step ups in competition. Since losing the Ultimate Fighter Finale, he’s demolished everyone he’s fought in impressive fashion. His wrestling is strong and finishing is a priority. Viana is undefeated, but his level of competition is also quite low.
  
• Confidence: Great

Tim Means vs. Jorge Masvidal

• My Pick: Tim Means
• Reasoning: The upset pick here, Means is highly untested. The biggest name on his opponents list is Spencer Fisher, which was 8 years ago. However, his striking is annoying and dangerous at the same time. If he can frustrate Masvidal, he can make him make a mistake and score the upset.
  
• Confidence: Fair

Joseph Benavidez vs. Darren Uyenoyama

• My Pick: Joseph Benavidez
• Reasoning: Uyenoyama’s only hope in this fight would be to submit Benavidez. His striking is behind and he’s not going to out wrestle him. The problem is, if Benavidez doesn’t want this on the ground, it isn’t going there.
  
• Confidence: Great

Ramsey Nijem vs. Myles Jury

• My Pick: Myles Jury
• Reasoning: Jury showed that he can hold off someone who wants to wrestle him down in the Johnson fight. Knowing that Nijem and Johnson have a similar style in that regards, I think Jury can keep this where he wants to and take a decision on his feet.
  
• Confidence: Fair

Francis Carmont vs. Lorenz Larkin

• My Pick: Lorenz Larkin
• Reasoning: Two highly underrated guys, both who will make a jump into the top 15 or so with a quality win. Larkin, has the advantage here due to his footwork and boxing. Although it’s conceivable that Carmont gets him down, if Robbie Lawler had trouble, I think he will too. 
• Confidence: Good

Chad Mendes vs. Darren Elkins

• My Pick: Chad Mendes
• Reasoning: Elkins has shown that he clearly has the skills to compete in the upper echelon on the division. However, Mendes has a very similar skill set and seems to be better in just about every area. Without a KO punch standing, I don’t see how Elkins can win this.
  
• Confidence: Great

Happy Pickings,

Daniel

TUF Finale Picks

Maximo Blanco vs. Sam Sicilia

• My Pick: Maximo Blanco
• Reasoning: Blanco throws heavy leather and, if you’ve seen the Chang Hyun Kim fight, some mean kicks too. In addition, his sometimes frantic style will likely tempt Sicilia into throwing wildly. If it turns in to that kind of fight, the fans should win regardless of the outcome. However, it should be noted that Blanco has shown a very good chin and Sicilia was KOed last time out. 
  
• Confidence: Good
  

Justin Lawrence vs. Daniel Pineda

• My Pick: Justin Lawrence
• Reasoning: Lawrence is a freaky talent. He’s got some great stand up and has improved everytime I’ve seen him. Sure, he got caught by an equally talented and equally young Max Holloway, but that surely doesn’t discount his multiple golden gloves and kickboxing accolades. Could Pineda take him down and submit him? Sure. Does he want to get close enough to try? 
  
• Confidence: Great

Cole Miller vs. Part Palaszeski

• My Pick: Bart Palaszewski
• Reasoning: Firstly, check out my article on why we should watch Bartimus: http://www.mma-manifesto.com/fighter-scouting-reports/tuf-team-jones-vs-team-sonnen-finale-breakout-star-bart-palaszewski.html. And in short form, he has better striking and has really only been beaten by people who outwrestle him. 
  
• Confidence: Good

Clint Hester vs. Bristol Marunde

• My Pick: Clint Hester
• Reasoning: These guys share a similar build and skill set. Both look like they should never make 185 and both will likely try to stand and bang. The fact that Hester has professional boxing experience should tip the scales in his favor in that aspect. His survival instincts are also quite a bit better as is apparent by when he forced Douglas Lima to decision. 
  
• Confidence: Fair

Dylan Andrews vs. Jimmy Quinlan

• My Pick: Jimmy Quinlan
• Reasoning: This pick instantly pains me. Dylan Andrews is everything I miss about old school MMA. He’s got heart, guts and knows when he’s down he’s got to throw with reckless abandon. Too many times now I see fighters clearly down two rounds and they get complacent. I love watching him fight. However, I don’t think he’s going to be able to fend off the takedowns of Quinlan or be able to get back up once he’s down. A collegiate wrestler, Quinlan has also won multiple Pan-Am championships. 
  
• Confidence: Good

Luke Barnett vs. Collin Hart

• My Pick: Collin Hart
• Reasoning: Barnett looked impressive in his short stint on the show. He clearly possesses a stiking advantage in the match up and Hart will surely have to be aware of that knee that he loves to throw. However, Hart’s wrestling may easily become the deciding factor here. I don’t expect Barnett to be able to submit Hart off of his back and, if Hart plans accordingly, that’s where the fight will take place.
  
• Confidence: Fair

Kevin Casey vs. Josh Samman

• My Pick: Josh Samman
• Reasoning: Josh seems to have the advantage over King in every way. Sure King has some very solid jiu jitsu, but his chances of taking the fight there are slim. Samman has the better wrestling. Samman has far better striking.
  
• Confidence: Great

Happy Pickings,

Daniel

UFC 158 Picks

No wise words this week. Just Prelim Picks

Reuben Duran vs. George Roop

• My Pick: Reuben Duran
• Reasoning: While we’ve seen flashes of brilliance from Roop (Korean Zombie fight, Josh Grispi fight), his weight is what bothers me in this one. He was a long and lanky featherweight and now at bantamweight he’s going to look even smaller. Although his reach should help, I think Duran’s takedowns are good enough to get him to the ground and at the very least grind out a decision.  
• Confidence: Fair
  

TJ Dillashaw vs. Issei Tamura

• My Pick: TJ Dillashaw
• Reasoning: Tamura has showed me nothing that would think that his wrestling is in the same galaxy of a TJ Dillashaw. If Dillashaw uses anything but relentless takedowns and top game, I’d be very surprised.
  
• Confidence: Extreme

Quinn Mulhern vs. Rick Story

• My Pick: Rick Story
• Reasoning: While part of me is weary of some of his past fights, I know deep down that the Rick Story of old is in there. You remember; the one that used his grinding to take decisions from Johny Hendricks and Thiago Alves. If that story shows up, Mulhern is in over his head. 
• Confidence: Fair

Daron Cruickshank vs. John Makdessi

• My Pick: Daron Cruickshank
• Reasoning: Instantly, this fight jumps off the page at me as potential fight of the night. Both guys have black belts in Taekwondo and are great technical strikers. What separates Cruickshank from Makdessi is his ability to keep space and kick your head off. His utilization of kicks make his stand up a bit more complete.
  
• Confidence: Good

Jordan Mein vs. Dan Miller

• My Pick: Jordan Mein
• Reasoning: Mein is one of the more impressive Strikeforce imports. At 23 years old, he has already fought 34 times and has racked up 26 wins with 21 finishes. What’s most impressive to me though is the fact that he took Tyron Woodley to a split decision and was essentially one fight away from a crack at the welterweight title. His speed, footwork and boxing should cause problems for Miller and I believe his ground game can hang with him. 
  
• Confidence: Good

Antonio Carvalho vs. Darren Elkins

• My Pick: Darren Elkins
• Reasoning: While I’ll be the first to admit that he probably didn’t win the Omigawa fight, Elkins is riding a 4-fight wins streak that includes impressive wins over Steven Siler and Diego Brandao. His wrestling is near the top of his weight class and I don’t think Carvalho has the jiu jitsu to tap him out. 
  
• Confidence: Great

Patrick Cote vs. Bobby Voelker

• My Pick: Patrick Cote
• Reasoning: Cote has always sported some very serious kickboxing. While Voelker has been in some battles, I don’t think he’s been tested by someone as good as Cote. I also think that the big cut is only going to help Cote as he’ll be a little bit bigger for 170.
  
• Confidence: Fair

Happy Pickings,

Daniel

UFC on Fuel: Silva vs Stann Picks

Obviously, the biggest news in the MMA world recently is the giant roster cuts the brass at the UFC have made. While some are up in arms about who they cut and the reasoning, some have defended the world’s biggest MMA organization and their choices. If only to be a bit different, I would like to offer a similar money saving situation that the UFC could have used instead.

Dana White did not hide that the reason for the cuts was value. Some fighters, despite their good records, were being paid way higher than the money that they were bringing in. So, in a time where you need to make cuts, they figured they had to let people like that go. However, I have to wonder, if Joe Silva and Uncle Dana approached those like Jon Fitch (who was making a reported 66k show and 66k for a win) and asked them to take a pay cut in order to keep their job, would they have? If people like Fitch and Jacob Volkmann knew they could cut their salary down by a third, would they take it. Likely, it would free up just as much money as cutting many under performing preliminary card fighters and keep the big names on the roster. Also, I have to imagine that Fitch makes a good deal of money in endorsements. Just a thought.\

Anyways, on to the picks.

Shameless Plug: Prelim Breakout Star on mma-manifesto

Marcelo Guimaraes vs. Hyun-Gyu Lim

• My Pick: Hyun-Gyu Lim
• Reasoning: I am, admittedly, a little weary of Asian born fighters making their debut on Asian cards. This comes from the few performances that I saw at UFC 144 and at Franklin vs Le. However, Hyun-Gyu is for real. Although I’m not the biggest fan of where he keeps his hands, his stand up is very good. I’m always impressed with the way he keeps distance and picks his spots. Do not get me wrong, I am not discounting Guimaraes’ jiu jitsu abilities, but when fans see the size difference at weigh-ins, they’ll know Hyun-Gyu will keep it where he wants it.
  
• Confidence: Great
  

Alex Caceres vs. Kyung-Ho Kang

• My Pick: Alex Caceres
• Reasoning: This is not Caceres’ first long plane ride to get to a fight, having fought in China in November. In the first chance, it seemed not to matter much for Bruce LeeRoy who came out swinging and  looked very solid. What impresses me most about him is the amount he improves each time out. Since moving to Bantamweight his lone loss was a split decision to Edwin Figueroa in which he gave away two points for illegal groin kicks. Kyung-Ho has an impressive record, but I have yet to show a lot in his wins, mostly due to the skill level of his opponents.
• Confidence: Good

Cristiano Marcello vs. Kazuki Tokudome

• My Pick: Cristiano Marcello
• Reasoning: Firstly, for this fight, you should read my article: Prelim Breakout Star on mma-manifesto. Secondly, know that is tough and has a jiu jitsu game that is very tight.
  
• Confidence: Great 

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Bryan Caraway

• My Pick: Bryan Caraway
• Reasoning: Since joining WEC in 2008, Mizugaki has alternated wins and losses, going 5-5 in his last 10. While this has pretty much cemented his gatekeeper status, it’s also showed fans just how tough he is. While facing the likes of Brian Bowles, Scotty Jorgensen, and Miguel Angel Torres, he  was only finished by Urijah Faber. However, a good deal of those names he lost to are fighters with better wrestling than he has. Caraway may just fit into that category as well. In addition, he is really good at keeping the fight busy after a take down and looking for submissions. Plus, I have to pick Caraway, Mizugaki won his last fight. 
  
• Confidence: Fair

Riki Fukuda vs. Brad Tavares

• My Pick: Brad Tavares
• Reasoning: Fukuda is another one of those fighters who I’ve constantly been impressed with his size. He seems far too big for his weight class at times and uses it to bully people. However, Tavares showed really how well rounded his game was when he beat up Tom “Kong” Watson. Not only did he take down the tough Brit, but he took his back and threatened well with chokes. 
  
• Confidence: Fair

Happy Pickings,

Daniel

UFC 157 Picks

Before gracing your presence with my preliminary card knowledge, I’d like to take a second to make a quick statement about the historic main event to this weekend’s pay-per-view card. Many analysts have said that a Rousey loss this weekend could spell disaster, maybe even destruction, for the women’s division.  While I do believe that the loss of the division’s figure head could be damaging, I do not think it’ll be as bad as everyone thinks. While the UFC will likely lose the fringe fan if Rousey is no longer main eventing, those fans are not likely to last very long anyways. Sure, some will convert to being die hards  but the majority will talk about the fight and then not buy the pay-per-view. As for those who are already die hards (if you’re reading this I assume you are), they will watch a UFC event no matter who is main eventing.

Shameless Plug: http://www.mma-manifesto.com/2013-articles/february/ufc-157-prelim-breakout-star.html

And now, on to the picks.

Nah-Shon Burell vs. Yuri Villefort

• My Pick: Yuri Villefort
• Reasoning: While I like Burell’s size and strength, his striking seems to be a little long and loopy. The Spang fight really exposed his striking and showed that if he’s going to be successful, he needs to tighten it up. While Villefort is no striking God either, I am a fan of his ground game. His way of keeping opponents busy of the ground is going to make trouble for Burell.
  
• Confidence: Fair
  

Jon Manley vs. Neil Magny

• My Pick: Jon  Manley
• Reasoning: First off, it is terribly hard to pick against someone who taught you your first kimura. While I no longer train at his gym, I will always have the soft spot for that fact. As for actually reasons to pick him, Jon Manley is a hard nosed, press forward, don’t-care-if-you-hit-me type of guy. Magny is likely going to try to use his long limbs to keep Manley away. I expect Manley’s resilience to allow him to get inside to strike and/or work some take downs. 
  
• Confidence: Good

Kenny Robertson vs. Brock Jardine

• My Pick: Brock Jardine
• Reasoning: Both of these guys have been thrown to the lions in their UFC careers. Both having faced some serious wrestling skill, each will be relieved to fight the other. However, although he failed to mount much of an offense against Rick Story, historically Jardine has looked much crisper and more technical, while Robertson fights much more risky and unorthodox. Although sometimes his spinning back fists and knee bar dives do work, they are not the most reliable path to victory. 
• Confidence: Fair

Sam Stout vs. Carlos Fodor

• My Pick: Sam Stout
• Reasoning: I am and always will be a believer in Sam Stouts hands. I fully expect Fodor to try to get this to the ground and maybe even succeed for a round. However, like in the Healy fight, he doesn’t seem to have the stamina to continue this game plan if stopped a few times. If he bails on this, Stout will win the stand up battle. 
  
• Confidence: Good

Dennis Bermudez vs. Matt Grice

• My Pick: Dennis Bermudez
• Reasoning: Firstly, if you’d like to read the long recap: http://www.mma-manifesto.com/2013-articles/february/ufc-157-prelim-breakout-star.html. Now for the short and sweet. Bermudez has a better wrestling skill set and his jiu jitsu game is ever improving. While Grice has some decent hands, I expect Bermudez’s pace to tire him out. 
• Confidence: Great

Michael Chiesa vs. Anton Kuivanen

• My Pick: Michael Chiesa
• Reasoning: Chiesa may have won the least watched season of the Ultimate Fighter, which has caused him to fly under the radar. It’s obvious in his past fights that he has good jiu jitsu, but his boxing is underrated. Fans forget that on the show, he finished James Vick with his hands and Justin Lawrence with ground and pound. Kuivanen has good jiu jistu, but as long as Chiesa keeps it on the feet, Kuivanen will have trouble. 
  
• Confidence: Good

Brendan Schaub vs. Lavar Johnson

• My Pick: Lavar Johnson
• Reasoning: One thing that has become apparent to me in Schaub’s recent fights is that his chin is weak. While his boxing seems good, one shot left open seems to be enough to put him away. Lavar Johnson hits like a truck. You know when the over zealous striker, Stefan Struve, won’t stand and bang with someone, that someone throws hard. I can’t imagine Schaub taking too many of those. 
  
• Confidence: Great

Happy Pickings,

Daniel

UFC on Fuel: Barao vs McDonald Picks

The thing I love most about MMA is the unpredictable nature of the fights. I live for it. It’s part of what makes doing a predictions blog so exciting. So, obviously I loved everything about UFC 156. Sure, some people watched in horror as some of there favorites crumbled on the cusp of a title shot. I, on the other hand, smiled and laughed. Here’s to hoping this event lives up to the standards the last one set.

Shameless Plug: “UFC’s most memorable quotes” http://www.mma-manifesto.com/2013-articles/february/the-most-memorable-quotes-in-ufc-history.html

Phil Harris vs. Ulysses Gomez

• My Pick: Ulysses Gomez
• Reasoning: Some called it octagon jitters. Others attributed it to him being far overrated in his post of a top 5 flyweight in the world. I, conversely, place Gomez’s UFC debut loss squarely on the shoulders of his impressive opponent. John Moraga was and continues to be underrated, even after his submission of the night win over Chris Cariaso (a brutal guillotine choke). Phil Harris does have some good jiu jitsu and decent enough stand up, but he has never faced anybody as good or hungry as Gomez
  
• Confidence: Great
  

Vaughan Lee vs. Motonobu Tezuka

• My Pick: Vaughan Lee
• Reasoning: “Love” Lee is that entertaining kind of fighter who you can always count on to chase a finish. Tezuka on the other hand works for position and plays safe. The activity of Lee in this fight will likely take Tezuka out of his comfort zone and into deep waters. (Also, see the upcoming Prelim Breakout Star on mma-manifesto.com for more info on this fight).
  
• Confidence: Great

Tom Watson vs. Stanislav Nedkov

• My Pick: Stanislav Nedkov
• Reasoning: For years I heard about how Kong Watson was one of the best outside of the UFC. I heard calls to hire him after wins over John Maguire, Matt Horwich and eventually Ninja Rua. However, none of those seem particularly impressive, least of all the Rua fight as he was at the tail end of his career. After watching him get taken down and nearly submitted by Brad Tavares, I think he’ll have a lot of trouble with the clearly stronger Nedkov. 
  
• Confidence: Good

Andy Ogle vs. Josh Grispi

• My Pick: Andy Ogle
• Reasoning: If you watched the Ultimate Fighter and didn’t love Andy Ogle, you likely have no heart. The guy was as nice as can be and gave fans entertaining fight after entertaining fight. Although being entertaining doesn’t win fights, Ogle’s boxing seemed very fitting to his English roots. He’s tough and doesn’t go away. Grispi, on the other hand, seems to have done only that. He’s 0-3 in his UFC career, which was supposed to begin with a UFC title shot. Thus far he has looked underwhelming while striking with George Roop and while grappling with Rani Yahya. Unless we see huge improvement in his execution, you will see Grispi for the last time.
  
• Confidence: Fair

Paul Sass vs. Danny Castillo

• My Pick: Paul Sass
• Reasoning: Just about every time out, experts tell us that Sass will be out sized by his opponent or his opponent will know to stay out of the triangle/heel hook. However, he has an uncanny way of putting fights in his realm. Castillo has that Alpha Male wrestling, but if he’s smart he’ll stay off the ground. I just don’t know that he can do that for 15 minutes. 
  
• Confidence: Good

Terry Etim vs. Renee Forte

• My Pick: Terry Etim
• Reasoning: Forte is a huge man. 5’8″ in the welterweight division shows that you either have some real muscle or dietary issues and Forte has the former. However, the awkward style of Etim allows him to wrap those bigger, badder looking dudes up and tap them out. Expect him and Sass to be dueling it out for submission of the night. 
  
• Confidence: Good

Happy Pickings,

Daniel

UFC 156 Aldo vs Edgar Picks

There’s been a lot of clamoring lately about the UFC giving title shots to those who don’t deserve it. Nick Diaz, Chael Sonnen and now even Alistair Overeem are at the front lines despite losing recently and being suspended. However, as I start this blog post today, I’d like to implore the UFC to get one thing right in the title shot department; give the winner of tonight’s main event Ricardo Lamas. This guy has been nothing but exciting and deadly since he set foot in this division. There’s no reason to wait, there’s not another test he has to pass, just please give us what we want, Joe Silva.

Shameless Plus: http://www.mma-manifesto.com/2013-articles/january/ufc-156-prelim-breakout-star-tyron-woodley.html

And now for some picks.

Edwin Figueroa vs. Francisco Rivera

• My Pick: Francisco Rivera
• Reasoning:Francisco Rivera has shown off some really powerful hands. Sure, he tested positive for banned substances after that, but his technique cannot be discounted. Although Figueroa has also showed some solid boxing, watching him get outworked by Alex Caceres was a huge alert for me. Rivera works much faster and crisper and will likely get the best of  any exchanges here. 
• Confidence: Good
  

Chico Camus vs. Dustin Kimura

• My Pick: Dustin Kimura
• Reasoning: I hate picking against RoufusSport fighter, because they always have such electric striking. However, Kimura has that killer instinct you look for in fighters. He finds every possible hole and goes at it at 100mph. I’ve also been increasingly impressed with his striking over the last four fights. 
  
• Confidence: Fair

Yves Edwards vs. Issac Vallie-Flagg

• My Pick: Yves Edwards
• Reasoning: I feel like this guy has been fighting forever. Edwards had his first professional fight when I had just turned 8 years old. His experience really keeps him out of tricky situations, which I was impressed with in the Cody McKenzie fight. Vallie-Flagg also as a history of being submitted and The Thug Jitsu master has 17 submissions in his 42 career wins. Expect him to make it 18.
  
• Confidence: Great

Bobby Green vs. Jacob Volkmann

• My Pick: Jacob Volkmann
• Reasoning: Volkmann, one short year ago was grinding out  a 5-fight win streak and getting into title picture talks. Then he made a comment about wanting to fight Barack Obama and took a brutal submission loss to Paul Sass. Although he lost a lot of stock with those things, he seems to have retooled himself as a result of it. Whereas before he seemed to hold a position-first mentality on the ground, he quickly picked up a nice submissionvictory over Shane Roller. Green is a tough competitor, but his jiu jitsu blue belt will not hang with Volkmann
  
• Confidence: Great

Jay Hieron vs. Tyron Woodley

• My Pick: Tyron Woodley
• Reasoning: To give you a brief rundown of what my article on him said (Prelim Breakout Star:  http://www.mma-manifesto.com/2013-articles/january/ufc-156-prelim-breakout-star-tyron-woodley.html) he’s got some really dominant wrestling. In addition, his ground control, ground and pound, and submissions have all really benefited from his time at America’s Top Team.
• Confidence: Great

Evan Dunham vs. Gleison Tibau

• My Pick: Gleison Tibau
• Reasoning: I have always been an Evan Dunham fan. He has a great ground game and uses his distance well to set things up. However, I’m just beginning to lose  little faith in the way he fights due to some of his previous encounters. On the other hand, nobody can argue with Tibau’s strength. The guy might be the strongest lightweight in the UFC. With Dunham being so lanky, I think if Tibau gets on the inside he could score the upset.
  
• Confidence: Fair

Happy Pickings,

Daniel